Northbound Capital Trends | Northbound trading net purchases of HKD 9.865 billion, domestic capital re-accumulates Hong Kong stock ETFs, aggressively buying HKD 3.5 billion in Tracker Fund

According to Zhitong Finance APP, on November 11th, in the Hong Kong stock market, northbound capital had a net purchase of HKD 9.865 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect net purchase of HKD 6.071 billion and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect net purchase of HKD 3.793 billion.

The stocks with the highest net purchases from northbound capital were Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), HSCEI ETF (02828), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810). The stocks with the highest net sales were CNOOC (00883), Tencent (00700), and Sunac China (01918).

Active stocks in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect

Active stocks in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect

Northbound capital is aggressively buying Hong Kong stock ETFs, with Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) and HSCEI ETF (02828) receiving net purchases of HKD 3.492 billion and HKD 1.351 billion, respectively. On the news front, Zhongtai International stated that last week’s U.S. elections, the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, and the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress have helped eliminate uncertainties in the market. The VIX index and the Hang Seng Volatility Index both saw significant corrections last week, and Hong Kong stocks are expected to break free from the current stagnation. Huatai Securities pointed out that with domestic fiscal policies further strengthening, the relative valuation of Hong Kong stocks has reached a neutral level. Under the three factors of a potential short-term slowdown in overseas liquidity tightening, Hong Kong stocks may find support at the current valuation level. However, considering the risk of overseas liquidity potentially tightening more than expected next year, there may be limited further upside in valuations from the current level, and the market may continue to oscillate within the current valuation range.

Alibaba-W (09988) received a net purchase of HKD 1.047 billion. On the news front, Alibaba will release its earnings this Friday (November 15th). Credit Lyonnais previously pointed out that it expects the group's total revenue in the third quarter to grow by 4.8% year-on-year to RMB 235.5 billion, with GMV growth of about 6% and CMR growth of about 2% year-on-year. The international retail industry is expected to maintain a year-on-year growth of about 30%, while cloud computing is expected to grow by 8% year-on-year. However, due to ongoing investments, the group's adjusted EBITDA may decline by 5% year-on-year Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981) received a net buy of HKD 682 million. On the news front, according to media reports, in response to recent market rumors that TSMC will suspend the production of 7nm and below process chips for related AI chip customers starting November 11, TSMC did not directly deny the claims. The company responded to reporters by stating, "TSMC does not comment on rumors." Additionally, China International Capital Corporation believes that SMIC's revenue and profit performance in the third quarter exceeded expectations, mainly due to strong demand for consumer electronics in the third quarter and overseas customers being more willing to pull goods in advance, which improved capacity utilization during the period. Looking ahead, SMIC has guided that fourth-quarter revenue will grow by 2% quarter-on-quarter, with full-year revenue expected to reach approximately USD 8 billion.

XPeng Motors-W (09868) received a net buy of HKD 80.46 million. On the news front, XPeng Motors Chairman He Xiaopeng announced on Weibo today that the XPeng P7+ has begun nationwide deliveries. Credit Lyonnais released a report stating that they believe the P7+ and M03 will help XPeng achieve 30,000 deliveries in November, asserting that the success of the P7+ and M03 proves that XPeng's economical ADAS strategy is working. JP Morgan stated that they expect P7+ sales to reach 10,000 units in December, with total sales expected to reach 124,000 units by 2025, anticipating that management will provide more details on new models for next year during the quarterly earnings call.

Sunac China (01918) experienced a net sell of HKD 176 million. On the news front, in the first ten months of this year, Sunac China achieved a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately RMB 43.78 billion, a decrease of 42.2% compared to the same period last year, with a cumulative contract sales area of approximately 1.979 million square meters, a decrease of 63.4%. Notably, Sunac China is promoting a domestic debt restructuring, with reports indicating that the company recently plans to offer creditors four options regarding the domestic bond restructuring plan, seeking to reduce the scale of approximately RMB 15.5 billion in domestic bonds by about half.

Tencent (00700) experienced a net sell of HKD 320 million. On the news front, on November 13, Tencent is set to release its third-quarter report for 2024 after the Hong Kong stock market closes. According to predictions from 12 brokerages, Tencent's non-IFRS net profit for the third quarter is expected to reach between RMB 51.341 billion and RMB 57 billion, compared to RMB 44.921 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.3% to 26.9%, with a median of RMB 54.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%. Goldman Sachs stated that the market is focused on guidance from Tencent's management regarding the future strength of the online gaming industry, the outlook for advertising business, growth in fintech and payments, gross margin expansion, and free cash flow (for investments in AI and cloud business and shareholder returns).

China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) experienced a net sell of HKD 430 million. On the news front, the impact of Hurricane "Rafael" on oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico has begun to weaken, coupled with market expectations that crude oil demand may weaken, leading to a decline in international oil prices of over 2% last Friday. GF Futures believes that with supply pressures easing, weak demand, a strong dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties coexisting, oil prices face downward pressure in the short term, but the space is relatively limited, and the probability of continued wide fluctuations in oil prices is high In addition, Xiaomi Group-W (01810) received a net purchase of HKD 1.185 billion. Meanwhile, Shanghai Electric (02727) experienced a net sell of HKD 11.18 million