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Since September, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 75 basis points, but the US dollar and US Treasury bonds have risen significantly. On November 14, Minsheng Securities released a report stating that comparing the performance of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds before and after the elections this year and in 2016 reveals that the "Trump trade" in 2016 began at the end of October and lasted for about 2 months until the end of December. This year's "Trump trade" started in early October, earlier than in 2016; if it also lasts for 2 months, it may not fade until early December this year. Attention should be paid to the economic data released in November: ISM Manufacturing PMI and November non-farm payroll data. If they show signs of continued weakness in the US economy, we may see a more pronounced turning point for the US dollar and US Treasury bonds