鮑威爾：不急於降息

引子

北京時間凌晨 4 點，鮑威爾在達拉斯的演講中表示“經濟並沒有發出任何我們需要急於降低利率的信號”，這是他在通脹數據公佈後首次提供對未來貨幣政策的指引/溝通，雖然在演講稿中鮑威爾依然強調就業和通脹的風險趨於平衡，但在提及通脹時強調了 2% 的目標沒有被達到（not there yet），並且致力於“完成這項工作”（committed to finishing the job）。

筆者的觀感是，相比於 9 月/11 月議息會議時的表態和姿態，鮑威爾輕微地把風險平衡從就業風險再度撥回了中間態。此前市場參與者並未把 2% 列為嚴格的需要被達到的通脹數字目標，但鮑威爾的表態看起來這是一項必須完成的任務，這或許與明年 5 年一度的聯儲框架審查壓力有關。

另外，這種姿態變化顯然不是大選的勝出者想要看到的……

演講全文

Good afternoon. Thank you to the World Affairs Council, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and the Dallas Regional Chamber for the kind invitation to be with you today. I will start with some brief comments on the economy and monetary policy.

大家下午好。感謝世界事務委員會、達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行和達拉斯地區商會的盛情邀請。首先，我將簡要談談經濟和貨幣政策。

Looking back, the U.S. economy has weathered a global pandemic and its aftermath and is now back to a good place. The economy has made significant progress toward our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices. The labor market remains in solid condition. Inflation has eased substantially from its peak, and we believe it is on a sustainable path to our 2 percent goal. We are committed to maintaining our economy's strength by returning inflation to our goal while supporting maximum employment.

回顧過去，美國經濟經受住了 Covid 及其後果的考驗，目前已恢復到良好的狀態。經濟在實現充分就業和物價穩定的雙重使命方面取得了重大進展。勞動力市場依然穩固。通脹率已從高峰大幅回落，我們相信，通脹率正朝着 2% 的目標持續邁進。我們致力於通過使通脹率回到我們的目標，同時支持充分就業，來保持我們的經濟強勁。

Recent Economic Data 近期經濟數據

Economic growth 經濟增長

The recent performance of our economy has been remarkably good, by far the best of any major economy in the world. Economic output grew by more than 3 percent last year and is expanding at a stout 2.5 percent rate so far this year. Growth in consumer spending has remained strong, supported by increases in disposable income and solid household balance sheets. Business investment in equipment and intangibles has accelerated over the past year. In contrast, activity in the housing sector has been weak.

我國經濟近期的表現非常出色，是迄今為止世界主要經濟體中表現最好的。去年，經濟產出增長了 3% 以上，今年到目前為止，經濟增長速度達到了 2.5%。在可支配收入增加和家庭資產負債表穩健的支撐下，消費支出增長依然強勁。過去一年，企業在設備和無形資產方面的投資也在加速。與此相反，住房部門的活動卻十分疲軟。

Improving supply conditions have supported this strong performance of the economy. The labor force has expanded rapidly, and productivity has grown faster over the past five years than its pace in the two decades before the pandemic, increasing the productive capacity of the economy and allowing rapid economic growth without overheating.

供應條件的改善為經濟的強勁表現提供了支持。勞動力隊伍迅速擴大，過去五年的生產率增長速度超過了 Covid 以前二十年的速度，提高了經濟的生產能力，使經濟在不過熱的情況下快速增長。

The labor market 勞動力市場

The labor market remains in solid condition, having cooled off from the significantly overheated conditions of a couple of years ago, and is now by many metrics back to more normal levels that are consistent with our employment mandate. The number of job openings is now just slightly above the number of unemployed Americans seeking work. The rate at which workers quit their jobs is below the pre-pandemic pace, after touching historic highs two years ago. Wages are still increasing, but at a more sustainable pace. Hiring has slowed from earlier in the year. The most recent jobs report for October reflected significant effects from hurricanes and labor strikes, making it difficult to get a clear signal. Finally, at 4.1 percent, the unemployment rate is notably higher than a year ago but has flattened out in recent months and remains historically low.

勞動力市場的狀況依然穩健，已經從幾年前明顯過熱的狀況中冷卻下來，從許多指標來看，現在已經恢復到與我們的就業任務相一致的更正常水平。目前，職位空缺數量僅略高於美國失業求職人數。工人的辭職率在兩年前達到歷史高點後，現在已低於疫情前的水平。工資仍在增長，且速度更可持續。與年初相比，招聘速度有所放緩。10 月份的最新就業報告反映了颶風和罷工的重大影響，因此很難獲得明確的信號。最後，失業率為 4.1%，明顯高於一年前，但最近幾個月已趨於平穩，仍處於歷史低位。

Inflation 通貨膨脹

The labor market has cooled to the point where it is no longer a source of significant inflationary pressures. This cooling and the substantial improvement in broader supply conditions have brought inflation down significantly over the past two years from its mid-2022 peak above 7 percent. Progress on inflation has been broad based. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data released this week indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in October and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.8 percent. Core measures of goods and services inflation, excluding housing, fell rapidly over the past two years and have returned to rates closer to those consistent with our goals. We expect that these rates will continue to fluctuate in their recent ranges. We are watching carefully to be sure that they do, however, just as we are closely tracking the gradual decline in housing services inflation, which has yet to fully normalize. Inflation is running much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, but it is not there yet. We are committed to finishing the job. With labor market conditions in rough balance and inflation expectations well anchored, I expect inflation to continue to come down toward our 2 percent objective, albeit on a sometimes-bumpy path.

勞動力市場已經降温，不再是重大通脹壓力的來源。這種降温以及更廣泛的供應條件的大幅改善，使通脹率在過去兩年中從 2022 年中期超過 7% 的峯值大幅回落。通脹方面的進展具有廣泛的基礎。根據本週公佈的消費者價格指數（CPI）和其他數據進行的估算表明，在截至 10 月份的 12 個月中，PCE 總價格上漲了 2.3%，除去波動較大的食品和能源類別，核心 PCE 價格上漲了 2.8%。不包括住房在內的核心商品和服務通脹率在過去兩年中迅速下降，目前已恢復到更接近我們目標的水平。我們預計，通脹率將繼續在其最近的讀數範圍內波動。不過，我們正在仔細觀察，以確保它們確實如此，正如我們正在密切跟蹤住房服務通脹率的逐步下降一樣，這一通脹率尚未完全正常化。通脹率正逐步接近我們 2% 的長期目標，但還沒有達到。我們致力於完成這項工作。隨着勞動力市場狀況的基本平衡和通脹預期的良好錨定，我預計通脹率將繼續向 2% 的目標回落，儘管道路有時會崎嶇不平。

Monetary Policy 貨幣政策

Given progress toward our inflation goal and the cooling of labor market conditions, last week my Federal Open Market Committee colleagues and I took another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate 1/4 percentage point.

鑑於我們在實現通脹目標方面取得的進展以及勞動力市場狀況的降温，上週我和聯邦公開市場委員會的同事們在降低政策約束（緊縮）程度方面又邁出了一步，將政策利率下調了 25 個基點。

We are confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintained, with inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent. We see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as being roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks to both sides. We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.

我們相信，只要適當調整我們的政策立場，經濟和勞動力市場就能保持強勁，通脹率也能持續下降到 2%。我們認為，實現就業目標和通脹目標所面臨的風險大體平衡，我們會關注這兩方面的風險。我們知道，過快地減少政策約束可能會阻礙通脹方面的進展。與此同時，過慢地減少政策約束也會不適當地削弱經濟活動和就業。

We are moving policy over time to a more neutral setting. But the path for getting there is not preset. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, we will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully. Ultimately, the path of the policy rate will depend on how the incoming data and the economic outlook evolve.

隨着時間的推移，我們正在將政策轉向更加中性的設定。但實現這一目標的路徑並不是預設的。在考慮對聯邦基金利率目標區間進行額外調整時，我們將仔細評估收到的數據、不斷變化的前景以及風險平衡。經濟並沒有發出任何我們需要急於降低利率的信號。我們目前看到的經濟強勁現狀使我們有能力謹慎地做出決定。最終，政策利率的走向將取決於新數據和經濟前景的演變。

We remain resolute in our commitment to the dual mandate given to us by Congress: maximum employment and price stability. Our aim has been to return inflation to our objective without the kind of painful rise in unemployment that has often accompanied past efforts to bring down high inflation. That would be a highly desirable result for the communities, families, and businesses we serve. While the task is not complete, we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome.

我們仍然堅定地致力於完成國會賦予我們的雙重使命：充分就業和穩定物價。我們的目標是使通脹率回到我們的目標，而不會像過去為降低高通脹率所做的努力那樣，伴隨着失業率的上升而痛苦不堪。對於我們所服務的社區、家庭和企業來説，這將是一個非常理想的結果。雖然任務尚未完成，但我們已經在實現這一目標方面取得了很大進展。

Thank you, and I look forward to our discussion.

謝謝，我期待着我們的討論

文章來源：智堡投研，原文標題：《鮑威爾：不急於降息》