6500 points! Goldman Sachs raises S&P 500 index target price for next year
Goldman Sachs raised its S&P 500 index target price to 6,500 points by the end of 2025, expecting an increase of about 10%. Chief Strategist David Kostin pointed out that the continuous growth of the economy and corporate earnings is the main driving force. Despite risk factors such as Trump's tariff policies and high bond yields, Goldman Sachs believes investors should seize opportunities in the stock market. Technology stocks are expected to outperform other components, and stocks with merger and acquisition potential are worth paying attention to
David Kostin, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, stated that the upward trend of the S&P 500 index will continue into the end of next year amid ongoing economic expansion and corporate earnings growth in the United States.
Kostin raised the target price for the S&P 500 index at the end of 2025 from the previous 6,300 points to 6,500 points, about 10% higher than the current level. This new target price aligns with the forecast of Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson, who recently raised his target price for U.S. stocks.
In a report on Monday, Kostin wrote, "In our baseline macro outlook, the economy and earnings continue to grow, and U.S. Treasury yields will remain near current levels."
So far this year, the S&P 500 index has risen 24% as the AI boom has driven stocks like Nvidia to soar, while the U.S. economy continues to perform strongly. The index remains close to the record high set on November 11, after Trump's presidential election victory.
S&P 500 index valuation soars
As of mid-October, the median estimate among strategists for the S&P 500 index target price at the end of 2025 is 6,000 points. Kostin expects the index to rise by about 10%, which is consistent with typical Wall Street forecasts in recent years.
Kostin noted that the event risks that could trigger upward or downward movements in U.S. stocks are high. He stated, "A more 'friendly' fiscal policy or a more dovish Federal Reserve could further boost the stock market, but proposed tariffs by Trump and higher bond yields could pressure the stock market."
So far, Goldman Sachs believes that the impact of Trump's tariffs on foreign goods and potential tax cuts for domestic manufacturers roughly offsets each other, at least in their own earnings per share forecasts.
Kostin wrote, "We believe investors should take advantage of periods of lower volatility to seize opportunities for stock market upside or hedge against downside risks through options."
Other forecasts from Goldman Sachs include:
Next year, the performance of the "Seven Giants" in the tech sector will continue to outperform other components of the S&P 500 index, but the gap will be the "narrowest in seven years."
Stocks with merger potential may be desirable; during Trump's first term, a basket of such stocks performed well