Failed to reach $100,000, Bitcoin fell below $95,000, MSTR supported by two Wall Street institutions
On Monday, during the U.S. stock market, there was a strong sentiment for profit-taking on Bitcoin, continuing the decline from the weekend, and it briefly fell below $94,500. On the news front, Bessent was nominated by the U.S. Treasury Secretary, and investors expect him to prioritize economic and market stability, which led to a decline in the dollar and Bitcoin, while U.S. Treasury bonds rose. There was also good news in the cryptocurrency space on the same day: Wall Street is preparing to launch a new generation of cryptocurrency-related ETFs to cater to various types of investors. Additionally, "Bitcoin whale" MSTR saw its target price significantly raised by Bernstein and others, opening higher but closing down over 4%
On November 25th, Monday, Bitcoin continued its decline from the weekend, dropping further and briefly falling below $94,500. Bitcoin fell over $2,000, a decrease of more than 2.2%, approaching the bottom of $93,850.62 on November 21st. Ethereum, on the other hand, remained relatively strong, with an intraday increase of up to 3.9%, hovering around $3,500.
On that day, blockchain concept stocks had mixed performances. Kodak rose by 18.6%, Beyond Inc. increased by over 9.4%, Ebang International ADR rose by over 8.6%, Applied Digital increased by over 8.4%, Ethereum ETF FETH rose by 6.65%, Robinhood rose by about 3.3%, and cryptocurrency exchange giant Coinbase rose by about 2.5%. "Bitcoin whale" MSTR fell by over 4%, TeraWulf dropped by over 6%, and BTC Digital fell by over 8%.
In terms of news, Basant was nominated by the U.S. Treasury Secretary, and investors expect him to prioritize economic and market stability, ushering in the "Mnuchin 2.0" era, knowing where the red lines are. The new government's fiscal policy will take a gradual approach, implementing tariff policies in phases, rather than as aggressively as promised during Trump's campaign. This led to declines in the dollar and Bitcoin, while U.S. Treasury bonds rose.
There was also good news in the cryptocurrency space on the same day. Currently, Wall Street is actively preparing to launch new cryptocurrency-related ETFs. With the election of Trump, a supporter of digital currency assets, as the next U.S. president, media reports indicate that executives and lawyers involved in ETFs are developing strategies to cater to the preferences of different investors comprehensively.
The new cryptocurrency-related ETFs in preparation include both defensive ETFs aimed at professional fund managers interested in cryptocurrencies and highly speculative bets aimed at those with a high-risk appetite. High-risk cryptocurrency ETFs may focus on a variety of digital tokens and may sometimes use leverage, options, or quantitative strategies.
Previously, some cryptocurrency-related ETFs that purely tracked Bitcoin had attracted billions of dollars since the U.S. election.
The industry generally expects that under Trump's administration, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will be more accepting of new digital currency products than under the Biden administration. The SEC may see new leadership, and the ETF industry is entering a "Wild West" era.
Currently, several digital asset companies have applied to the SEC to launch ETFs tracking cryptocurrencies such as Solana, XRP, and Litecoin. These types of ETFs have a low chance of approval under the SEC led by Gary Gensler, but under the new government leadership, their chances are likely to increase. Additionally, tokens like Aave, Uniswap, and Maker are also suitable for ETF products.
On the same day, well-known Wall Street firm Bernstein significantly raised its target price for "Bitcoin whale" MSTR from $290 to $600, expecting a further 40% upside. This is in stark contrast to Citron's recent bearish outlook.
Bernstein expects that by 2033, MSTR will hold 4% of the global Bitcoin supply. Currently, the company holds 1.7% of the supply. Bernstein believes that MSTR's Bitcoin asset management model is unparalleled According to Bernstein, Bitcoin is in a structural bull market, with favorable regulations, support from the U.S. government, institutional adoption, and a favorable macroeconomic environment.
In addition, another brokerage, Canaccord, raised its target price for MSTR from $300 to $510 and reiterated its buy rating. Canaccord stated that a new approach should be adopted to value MSTR. "Traditional profit and loss statement earnings metrics are no longer applicable to MSTR, as the company's software business accounts for only a single-digit percentage of its current enterprise value. The dollar-denominated appreciation per share of BTC reflects everything that is happening with MSTR."
MSTR CEO Michael Saylor commented on being shorted, stating that Citron does not understand where MSTR's premium relative to Bitcoin comes from. The company is profiting from volatility trading while also leveraging through ATM operations, so as long as Bitcoin continues to rise, the company can still make money, which is an important profit point that short sellers overlook. "Based on an 80% Bitcoin spread, $3 billion in ATM financing can generate $125 per share in earnings over 10 years."
MSTR surged over 6% in pre-market trading on Monday but then retraced, ultimately closing down more than 4%