The market response to Trump's tariff threat: car stocks wail, the Canadian dollar hits a four-year low, and the Mexican peso plummets nearly 3%
The Canadian dollar fell more than 1% during the session, hitting a new low in four and a half years; the Mexican peso reached a new low in over two years; the Australian dollar hit a new low in over three months. European and Asian stock indices fell broadly, with the Mexican ETF dropping more than 3% during the session; the European stock automotive sector fell 1.7%, with Stellantis down nearly 5%; General Motors in the U.S. stock market fell as much as 8.8%, marking the largest decline in over two years; solar stocks plummeted, with Array dropping more than 5% during the session
According to CCTV News, on the 25th local time, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump stated that a 25% tariff would be imposed on all products entering the United States from Mexico and Canada.
Trump issued the latest tariff threat after the U.S. stock market closed on Monday, causing turbulence in multiple global financial markets. The foreign exchange market reacted quickly, with emerging market currencies, the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso, both plummeting against the U.S. dollar. European and Asian stock indices fell, and U.S. automotive stocks suffered significant losses.
The Canadian dollar hit a four-and-a-half-year low. The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar rose over 1% in early Asian trading, briefly approaching 1.4180, reaching a new high since May 2022, with an intraday increase of nearly 1.4%. The U.S. stock market returned to below 1.4100 in early trading, with the intraday gain halved, rising less than 0.7%.
The Mexican peso fell nearly 3% to a two-year low during trading. The U.S. dollar against the Mexican peso quickly broke through 20.7530 in early Asian trading, with an intraday increase of over 2.3%. The decline gradually narrowed, and European stocks fell below 20.50 during trading. After the U.S. stock market opened, the gain expanded again to over 2%, with the U.S. stock market midday breaking above 20.83, refreshing the high since August 2022, with an intraday increase of over 2.7%. Barclays strategist Erick Martinez Magana commented that Trump is very serious about changes in immigration and tariff policies, with Mexico being the direct target. He expects the Mexican peso to further depreciate, with the U.S. dollar against the peso rising to 21.50.
The Australian dollar was also affected, hitting a three-month low during trading. The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar fell below 0.6440 in early Asian trading, refreshing the low since August, with an intraday decline slightly exceeding 1%.
Safe-haven currency yen rebounded further. The U.S. dollar against the yen fell to 152.99 before the U.S. stock market opened, refreshing the low since November 11, with an intraday decline of 0.8%.
In the stock market, major stock indices in Asian countries and European major economies fell broadly. The Taiwan Weighted Index closed down nearly 1.2%. The pan-European stock index halted a three-day rise, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index closing down nearly 0.6%. Affected by tariff impacts, the basic resources sector, where mining stocks are located, fell nearly 1.9%, leading the declines; the automotive sector fell 1.7%, with component stocks Stellantis down nearly 4.8% and Volkswagen down 2.4%.
After the U.S. stock market opened, automotive stocks fell broadly, with General Motors briefly down nearly 8.8%, marking the largest intraday decline since June 2022, and Ford Motor down over 3% in early trading. Solar stocks were also hit, with Array down over 5% at midday, Canadian Solar down over 4%, and Sunrun down over 4% at one point
The ETF iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW), which tracks a basket of Mexican stocks, fell 3.1% intraday, hitting a new daily low in early trading. According to Xinhua News Agency, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum issued an open letter on the 26th in response to recent statements by Trump. She stated that if the U.S. imposes tariffs on Mexico, Mexico will be forced to take reciprocal measures, which could lead to increased operational risks for businesses in both countries, while exacerbating inflation and unemployment issues. The U.S. cannot effectively solve the immigration problem or alleviate the domestic drug consumption crisis solely through threats and tariffs.
The two major U.S. stock indices, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, continued their upward momentum from Monday. Michael O’Rourke, Chief Market Strategist at JonesTrading, commented that investors are not as worried as the initial news headlines suggested. There is still a long way to go for the U.S. to pass any relevant legislation, and Trump is giving the countries he mentioned time to adjust before he takes office.
Dave Lutz, macro strategist at JonesTrading, stated, “It feels like the stock market has largely discounted this news, viewing it as just the first round in a long process before tariffs are ultimately implemented. And when they are finally implemented, they may not be as severe.”
Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading LLC, noted that the market may view this more as a temporary move since it comes with additional conditions. In other words, imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada may only be a short-term action