Can Trump's election boost retail? The test of "Black Friday" is coming

This year, Trump swept seven swing states to secure victory, but whether the public opinion reflected in his election can be manifested in the economy and consumer sentiment will be tested this Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving.

Previously, the industry anticipated that the year-end holiday shopping season at the end of November and December would see modest retail growth. The National Retail Federation (NRF), the largest retail industry association in the world, predicted last month that U.S. consumer spending during this winter holiday season would increase by 2.5% to 3.5% compared to the same period last year, which translates to total spending during the November and December holidays ranging from $979.5 billion to $989 billion. The upper end of this forecast growth range is close to the average level of the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, while the lower end is 32% below the historical average growth rate.

No matter how you look at it, the above predictions indicate that retail sales during this year's year-end holiday season will record the slowest growth since 2018. The retail sales growth rate during the 2018 holiday season was 1.8%. Isaac Krakovsky, head of retail consulting for Ernst & Young Americas, stated:

"I think this Christmas will be tough. All my clients, large clients, are telling me they are spending less on (capital expenditures). ... When everyone is cutting back and driven by what they see in the market, I think we will have a tough holiday season."

In light of the predicted slowdown in holiday consumption growth, will Trump's election give his supporters a shot in the arm to stimulate spending during this traditional shopping peak season for American families? CNBC analyzed the transportation trends in the red states won by the Republicans and the blue states supporting the Democrats, and spoke with shoppers from Texas, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, North Carolina, and Virginia to understand some possible impacts of this year's presidential election results on the holiday shopping season.

CNBC found that voters who supported Trump are optimistic about the economic outlook, while supporters of Democratic candidate Vice President Harris are more pessimistic, fearing that Trump's policies may make life more difficult for the middle class. In a world where purchasing decisions are driven by sentiment, these differing opinions may affect how much people ultimately spend this holiday season.

CNBC pointed out that in an environment where consumer sentiment drives shopping decisions, these differing opinions may influence consumers' final spending during the holidays. Experts believe that if people believe the economy is improving, it means they may be willing to increase their spending. Behavioral finance expert Meir Statman, a professor at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University, stated that Republicans' spending may be influenced by their optimistic sentiment, while Democrats' sentiment may suppress their spending.

Data collected by e-commerce logistics provider Grip also reflects this trend of Americans shopping online after the election. The data shows that in states won by Republicans, the volume of online shopping packages increased by 50.4% after the election, while in blue states won by Democrats, the volume decreased by an average of 11.2%, with only two blue states—Illinois and Minnesota—seeing an increase in shipping volume after the election

A nationwide consumer survey conducted by data analysis and consulting firm GlobalData after the election found that 51.3% of respondents believe that Trump's election as president will have a positive impact on the economy, while 13.5% plan to increase their spending this season following his election. 7.2% indicated plans to reduce spending.

In another survey conducted by retail analytics company First Insight, one-third of surveyed consumers stated that they plan to reduce their holiday spending budget due to the election.

"Neil Saunders, Managing Director and Retail Analyst at GlobalData, commented that consumers have mixed views on the election results. Overall, more people believe the election is beneficial to the economy than those who think it is detrimental.

"If people feel good, they are more likely to spend a little more during the holidays. Trump may not have a huge impact on Christmas, but in terms of consumption, he is more like Santa Claus than the Grinch."