Breakfast | Southbound funds have been buying Hong Kong stocks in droves this year! November electric vehicle delivery results are out: XPeng breaks 30,000 for the first time

Market Overview

On "Black Friday" last week, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Apple, and Walmart all reached new highs. U.S. stocks rose over 1% for the entire week. In November, the Dow Jones rose 7.5%, and the S&P 500 rose 5.7%, both marking the best single month of the year. The Nasdaq accumulated a rise of over 6%, small-cap indices rose nearly 11%, and the chip index rose 1.5% on Friday but fell 0.4% in November. Tesla rose over 38% in November, marking its best performance in nearly two years.

The China concept index rose 3% for the week but fell 3.5% in November. The U.S. dollar index fell below 106 on Friday but rose 1.7% in November, with interest rate hike expectations pushing the yen above 150, marking a six-week high for the yen. Bitcoin rose nearly 40% in November, marking its best performance in nine months.

Key Focus This Week

U.S. November non-farm payroll data, China's November Caixin PMI, OPEC meeting.

Additionally, the U.S. will release November "small non-farm" data, ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices, and the Federal Reserve will publish the Beige Book on economic conditions, with multiple officials from U.S. and European central banks, including Powell, speaking intensively. The Eurozone will release the final quarter-on-quarter GDP for Q3, and China's photovoltaic industry will hold the 2024 annual conference.

China's November Official Manufacturing PMI at 50.3, Expanding for Three Consecutive Months, Non-Manufacturing Sector Slightly Declines

With a series of stock and incremental policies continuing to work in synergy, the manufacturing PMI has risen within the expansion zone, with an accelerated pace of expansion. The new orders index has expanded for the first time in six months. Although new export orders are still contracting, they have significantly improved month-on-month. Both factory prices and raw material prices have dropped sharply, with the latter showing a more pronounced decline, helping mid- and downstream enterprises improve profit margins. Small enterprises remain in the contraction zone, with over 60% of companies reflecting insufficient demand. The non-manufacturing PMI fell by 0.2 percentage points, with the composite PMI remaining flat compared to last month.

Trump Threatens to Impose 100% Tariffs on BRICS Countries! Experts Say Increased Tariffs Could Bankrupt Many U.S. Companies

According to CCTV News, on November 30 local time, U.S. President-elect Trump posted on his social media platform, demanding that "BRICS countries" abandon plans to create new currencies or support other currencies to replace the U.S. dollar, or these countries would face 100% tariffs. Robert Handfield, a professor of operations and supply chain management at North Carolina State University, stated that if tariffs are indeed raised, companies will have no choice but to pass on the increased costs, which "could lead to the bankruptcy of many industries in the U.S." and "cause many American companies to go bankrupt."

Chinese Companies Facing Unprecedented Large-Scale Visa Denials from the U.S.

According to Observer.com, approximately 4,000 exhibitors from around the world are expected at CES, with over 30% estimated to be from China. However, with only about a month left until the exhibition opens, many employees of Chinese companies are still being denied U.S. visas. Commentators say that the refusal of CES visas is another example of the U.S. government's intention to reduce exchanges between China and the U.S.

U.S. "Black Friday" Consumer Performance Mediocre, but Online Shopping Sets New Records

This year, retail store sales on Black Friday in the U.S. only grew by 0.7%. In contrast, U.S. e-commerce online sales surged by 14.6%, indicating that cost-conscious American consumers are more inclined to shop online. Meanwhile, generative AI chatbots have driven a surge in traffic to retail websites, with digital retailers using generative AI having a conversion rate 9% higher than those not using AI

Year-to-date southbound funds have net purchased HKD 711.1 billion in Hong Kong stocks, surpassing 2020 and setting a new ten-year high

Southbound funds mainly increased their holdings in central state-owned enterprises, particularly favoring banks and energy stocks. Internet leaders are also a key focus for southbound fund increases.

The possible short-term path for the Hong Kong stock market. CICC believes that if tariffs are implemented gradually (initial tariffs of 30-40%), the expected impact on the market will be limited, likely resembling the situation after the third round of tariffs in April 2019. It is recommended that investors maintain the current oscillating structural operations. If the maximum tariff is raised to 60%, due to insufficient market pricing and the actual impact becoming non-linear, the market may face significant disturbances.

November electric vehicle delivery report released

BYD's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 500,000, XPeng broke 30,000 for the first time, and Seres' sales increased by 54.58% year-on-year. Xiaomi's SU7 delivered over 20,000 units last month, and Xiaomi expressed confidence in achieving its new delivery target of over 130,000 units for the year.

Meituan's financial report exceeds expectations

Meituan's Q3 revenue reached RMB 93.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, exceeding expectations, with instant delivery orders increasing by 14.5% year-on-year to 7.1 billion; net profit rose by 258.0% year-on-year. Local business revenue grew by 20.2% year-on-year, and losses in new businesses significantly narrowed. In the conference call, Meituan stated that the potential of lower-tier markets is gradually being released, focusing on local business growth and profit balance.

U.S. stocks have risen over 20% for two consecutive years, Trump "adding fuel to the fire," Wall Street worries: everyone is bullish!

The S&P 500 index has continuously set new highs, with small-cap stocks surging. Analysts believe there are already signs of extreme bullish sentiment in the market. At the same time, the rising uncertainty about how Trump's plans will affect economic growth, inflation, and the central bank's interest rate path has also increased risks.

The hottest asset after the U.S. election: U.S. Bitcoin ETF records monthly capital net inflow

The key driver of Bitcoin's price increase is the outcome of the U.S. election. Elected President Trump promised to abolish the Biden administration's restrictions on cryptocurrencies and appoint regulators who support digital assets. Trump also supports the establishment of a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve