CITIC Construction Investment: In December, the interest rates of the China-U.S. bond market resonate downward, and gold prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels overall

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, CITIC Construction Investment has released a research report stating that in December, the interest rates in the US and China bond markets are resonating downwards, and gold prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels. Among them, in terms of equities, US stocks have risen in the short term due to the Trump trade, but remain cautious in the medium term; the recent upward movement of A-shares is mainly driven by domestic policy expectations, and the behavior of institutional funds in the main board dimension is overall cautious, suggesting more right-side trading as the year-end approaches. In the commodity market, referencing 2018-2019, it is expected that commodities will continue to cool down. In the short term, the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel impacts gold prices, while in the medium term, under the simultaneous slowdown of the US economy and inflation, gold prices are still likely to remain in a high fluctuation mode.

CITIC Construction Investment's main viewpoints are as follows:

Equity Assets: US Stocks Remain Cautious in the Medium Term

United States: With the US election concluded, US stocks have risen in the short term due to the Trump trade, but in the medium term, the details of Trump's cabinet appointments point more towards the exit of large-scale fiscal deficit policies. Trump's immigration policies may lead to a faster cooling of the labor market, and there is a possibility of significant downward revisions in future US macro data similar to non-farm payrolls, suggesting caution for US stocks.

China: The recent upward movement in the market is mainly driven by domestic policy expectations, with the Central Economic Work Conference in December being an important time node. However, the behavior of institutional funds in the main board dimension is overall cautious, suggesting more right-side trading as the year-end approaches, and currently recommending maintaining a moderate position in A-shares.

Fixed Income: US and China Interest Rates Resonating Downwards

United States: Trump's nomination of Scott Bessen as US Treasury Secretary means that the significant expansion of fiscal deficits over the past two years will end. After losing fiscal stimulus support, although interest rate cuts will continue, it is expected to be difficult to prevent the US economy from returning to a downward acceleration trend, and it is recommended to overweight US Treasuries at the current position.

China: The trade protection policies after Trump's inauguration may impact domestic and foreign demand, while the domestic real estate market has not yet shown signs of a reversal with both volume and price rising. It is expected that the downward trend of China’s bond rates is not yet over.

Commodities: Commodities Cooling Down, Gold Prices Still at a High Position in the Short Term

CRB: The trade protection policies after Trump's inauguration may impact the manufacturing industry. Referencing the 2018-2019 case, it is expected that commodities will continue to cool down.

Gold: In the short term, the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel impacts gold prices, while in the medium term, under the simultaneous slowdown of the US economy and inflation, gold prices are still likely to remain in a high fluctuation mode, and gold prices around $2400 may be considered for further allocation.

Real Estate: US Real Estate Prosperity Remains at a Low Level

United States: Recently, US mortgage rates have risen from 6% to around 6.8%, and it is expected that the prosperity of the US real estate market will remain at a low level in the future.

China: Recently, real estate sales have shown some recovery, but prices remain weak. The frequent introduction of significant real estate policies previously requires continued observation of their actual effects.

Risk Warning: The results of this report are based on the corresponding pricing models of major asset classes, and caution should be exercised regarding the risk of model failure; past performance does not guarantee future results, and caution should be exercised regarding the risk that historical patterns may not repeat; model results are for research reference only and do not constitute investment advice; the ongoing conflicts in overseas regions have not yet ended, and caution should be exercised regarding the risk of large-scale escalation of localized conflicts; the rapid interest rate hikes in the US previously, combined with a certain resilience in the US economy, necessitate caution regarding the future weakening of US fiscal stimulus and the lagged impact of previous significant interest rate increases The future inflation center is expected to rise compared to the past 10 years, and there is a risk of U.S. Treasury yields remaining high for an extended period. Currently, the Chinese economy is significantly influenced by both domestic and international factors, and we must remain vigilant about the risks posed by domestic economic growth falling short of expectations