Saxo Bank's 2025 "Shocking Predictions" are here! Trump 2.0 destroys the dollar, NVIDIA's market value soars to twice that of Apple, OPEC disintegrates
This year, Saxo Bank has once again released several "outrageous" predictions: the US dollar will fall 20% against major currencies, a 30% drop in gold prices; NVIDIA's stock price will far exceed $250; the first 3D-printed heart will be unveiled; oil prices will plummet, and OPEC will disband
Saxo Bank's annual "Outrageous Predictions" has once again attracted market attention, a tradition that has lasted for over twenty years.
For many years, these predictions have always revolved around one core theme: exploring extreme scenarios that could disrupt traditional financial markets.
A quick review of Saxo Bank analysts' predictions for 2024 reveals that their forecasts are very interesting but lack accuracy: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be elected President of the United States, oil prices will reach $150 per barrel, GLP-1 drugs will derail the fitness industry... all these predictions have fallen flat, so investors should maintain a proper degree of skepticism towards their new forecasts.
This year, Saxo Bank has released several "outlandish" predictions: from Trump 2.0 destroying the dollar to the rise of NVIDIA, from the decline of OPEC to breakthroughs in biotechnology... Will these predictions come true this year?
In this regard, Saxo Bank analyst John Hardy stated:
"Saxo Bank's 'outlandish' predictions are not necessarily all accurate, but they can inspire our thinking and give us a more comprehensive understanding of the future."
Trump 2.0 Destroys the Dollar?
Saxo Bank predicts that by 2025, the new Trump administration will completely reform the relationship between the United States and the world, imposing hefty tariffs on all imported goods while reducing the deficit with the help of the government efficiency department (DOGE) led by Musk.
"The impact of the dollar on global trade is terrifying, as it cuts off the dollar supply needed to maintain the global dollar system, ironically putting the dollar at risk of soaring."
As a result, with global financial participants needing to actively seek alternatives in the future, dependence on the dollar may decrease.
Under this influence, Saxo Bank predicts that the cryptocurrency market will achieve a fourfold increase, with a market value expected to exceed $10 billion. The dollar's exchange rate against major currencies will drop by 20%, and its price against gold will also fall by 30%. Although the U.S. economy faces inflation challenges, wage growth is expected to keep pace with rising commodity prices, coupled with the export advantages brought by the return of production resources, the U.S. economy will remain resilient.
NVIDIA's Market Value Soars to Twice That of Apple?
Saxo Bank states that by 2025, NVIDIA is expected to further consolidate its market position with its revolutionary Blackwell chip. This chip, equipped with 208 billion transistors, boasts a 25-fold increase in AI computing performance compared to the previous H100, while significantly reducing energy consumption.
"As competition in the field of artificial intelligence intensifies, the demand for high-performance, low-power AI chips from enterprises and government agencies continues to rise, the launch of the Blackwell chip will undoubtedly propel NVIDIA to become one of the most valuable companies in the world."
Saxo Bank predicts that NVIDIA's stock price will far exceed $250, after which the market will begin to question its ability to capture larger shares of corporate profits and regulate its monopoly position.
The First 3D Printed Heart, Opening a New Era of Human Longevity?
Saxo Bank predicts that by 2025, there will be a groundbreaking scientific breakthrough that will shock the world: scientists will successfully create a fully functional human heart using 3D bioprinting technology for the first time. **
"Starting with high-resolution CT scans, scientists created a complex digital model that captures every tiny detail of the heart's intricate structure. This model serves as the blueprint for the most advanced 3D bioprinters, which meticulously layer human stem cells and biodegradable scaffold materials to construct organs in a highly precise manner."
The success of bioprinting organs will ignite investment enthusiasm in the biotechnology and 3D printing fields. The bank predicts that numerous startups are in a rapid development phase, and an IPO wave is imminent. This wave of innovation is expected to revolutionize the healthcare industry, improve patient treatment outcomes, and bring considerable economic benefits.
OPEC Disintegration? Oil Prices Plummet, Energy Market Faces Major Changes
Saxo Bank predicts that by 2025, due to the accelerated transition to electrification in the global automotive industry, the demand for oil will significantly decline. As the world's largest oil-exporting organization, OPEC's production cut agreements can no longer support the interests of its member countries, and internal conflicts within the group are becoming increasingly acute.
"Due to some member countries violating production quotas, internal conflicts within the organization have intensified. Amidst disputes and infighting, major member countries are withdrawing one after another. As export demand continues to shrink, member countries are resorting to drastic measures to compete for market share, significantly increasing production, which has led to a sharp drop in oil prices."
The bank stated that the plummeting crude oil prices are good news for airlines, chemicals, paint and tire manufacturers, as well as freight and logistics companies.
However, as higher-cost suppliers (especially North American suppliers) cease expensive shale oil production, the market will quickly rebalance, and oil prices will stabilize. Japanese automakers find themselves in a desperate competition to catch up with other electric vehicle manufacturers.
Due to Soaring Electricity Prices, the U.S. Imposes AI Data Center Tax
The bank predicts that by 2025, electricity prices will soar in several densely populated areas of the United States as the largest tech companies scramble to secure base-load power supplies for their valuable AI data centers.
"This has sparked public outrage as household electricity bills skyrocket, and the significant increase in electricity prices during peak evening hours exacerbates the situation. In response, many local authorities are taking action to protect political constituents by imposing hefty taxes or even fines on the largest data centers to subsidize lower electricity prices for households."
Against this backdrop, investment in U.S. electricity infrastructure will see significant growth. Companies like Fluor are rising due to signing numerous new construction contracts. Tesla's rapidly developing Megapack will receive increasing attention. Long-term natural gas prices in the U.S. have more than doubled, which is a significant factor in the worsening inflation outlook.
Natural Disasters Lead to Bankruptcy of a Major Insurance Company for the First Time?
The bank predicts that by 2025, a catastrophic storm and rainfall event will occur in the United States, catching the insurance industry off guard, with losses several times the $40 billion in claims from Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
"One of the largest insurance companies in the U.S. severely underestimated the insurance risks posed by climate change, leading to underpricing of policies in affected areas. With insufficient reserves to pay claims and reinsurance not alleviating the costs of this extreme event, panic spreads throughout the industry A crisis has erupted, prompting discussions at the government level about whether to rescue this nearly bankrupt company and other injured parties in the industry to prevent the spread of risk."
The bank stated that due to Buffett's company having sufficient capital to withstand panic and an increase in the company's market share, the stock price of Berkshire Hathaway has risen.
Optimistic Outlook for the UK, Pound Reaches Pre-Brexit Referendum Levels?
The bank predicts that by 2025, the exchange rate of the pound against the euro will rise to 1.27, reaching the level before the UK's Brexit referendum, thereby eliminating all discounts post-referendum.
"The outlook for the UK post-Brexit remains optimistic as ever. That is to say, relative to the eurozone, or the weakness of France and Germany, the UK's outlook is the most optimistic. The UK is ushering in a new wave of fiscal policy, with the new Labour government announcing budget priorities before 2025, avoiding income tax increases that would cause the greatest damage to growth while cutting spending in the least productive public sectors to reduce the deficit."
Domestic investment is encouraged, and the economic growth outlook is stronger, supporting the pound against the euro, with the euro to pound exchange rate expected to drop to 0.7500, below the level of 0.76 the day before the Brexit referendum. The UK's FTSE 100 index is performing strongly