"The Weight Loss Duo" First "Head-to-Head" PK: Eli Lilly Defeated Novo Nordisk, Goldman Sachs: The Market Already Knew
Goldman Sachs stated that this result aligns with the market's general expectations, indicating that Zepbound's weight loss effects are significantly better than Novo Nordisk. It is believed that Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly will control 80% of the weight loss drug market, with a ratio of 40% and 60% between the two
Eli Lilly has risen to prominence, engaging in fierce competition for market share with Novo Nordisk. The "tug-of-war" between the two giants in the weight loss drug sector intensifies!
Recent research results released by Eli Lilly show that its weight loss drug Zepbound performed better in the first "head-to-head" clinical trial against Novo Nordisk's Wegovy.
In this clinical trial, participants using Zepbound lost an average of 20.2% of their weight over 72 weeks, while those using Novo Nordisk's Wegovy lost 13.7%. This means that individuals taking Zepbound lost an average of 50 pounds, while those taking Wegovy lost 33 pounds.
In response, Goldman Sachs stated in a report released on the 4th that this result aligns with market expectations, indicating that Zepbound's weight loss effect is significantly superior to its competitors. They believe that Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly will control 80% of the weight loss drug market, with a ratio of 40% and 60% respectively.
Goldman Sachs: Zepbound's Effectiveness Prevails, Results Meet Expectations
This study included 751 participants from the United States and Puerto Rico, who received the highest tolerable dose of the medication.
The results showed that participants treated with Zepbound lost an average of 20.2% of their weight over 72 weeks, approximately 50 pounds, while those treated with Wegovy lost an average of only 13.7%.
This means that individuals taking Zepbound lost an average of 50 pounds, while Wegovy users lost 33 pounds.
Goldman Sachs stated in the report that this result meets general market expectations, referencing previous registered study data showing that Eli Lilly's SURMOUNT-1 trial had a weight loss effect of 20.9% over 72 weeks, while Novo Nordisk's data showed 14.9%.
“We believe that media attention on this study primarily reflects public interest in weight loss treatments rather than bringing about disruptive market changes. Our model predicts that Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly will control 80% of the weight loss drug market, with a ratio of 40% and 60%.”
Market interest in obesity treatment remains strong. The report notes that future discussions will continue to focus on demand intensity, production scale expansion, supply chain dynamics, and data updates for next-generation drugs, particularly Novo Nordisk's CagriSema data.
Rising to Prominence, Pressure on Novo Nordisk!
Novo Nordisk responded by stating that Wegovy is the only anti-obesity drug proven to reduce the risk of heart attacks and strokes in patients with heart disease and obesity.
Mizuho analyst Jared Holz referred to the competition between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as an "eternal leapfrog game." He stated that Zepbound's weight loss effect aligns with previously reported data from trials, while Wegovy's weight loss effect is at the lower end of the drug's long-term trial range. This result is more favorable for Eli Lilly to capture more market share in the intense competition.
Currently, the weight loss drug market is becoming one of the fastest-growing sectors in the pharmaceutical industry. Industry forecasts predict that by 2030, the market size will reach $130 billion. **
Novo Nordisk currently holds a leading position in the field of GLP-1 class drugs due to its first-mover advantage. However, this new trial result may pose a threat to its market position