After conducting an on-site inspection of POP MART in Thailand, UBS concluded: It's not just relying on Lisa and Labubu
UBS believes that the upward cycle of POP MART may continue for several more years, with overseas expansion becoming its second largest revenue growth engine. Thanks to the local marketing team, the company continuously attracts fans on social media through innovative activities and exhibitions. In addition to the Labubu character, characters like Molly and Crybaby are also very popular, demonstrating the brand's potential in Southeast Asian countries
UBS released a research report on the 4th, expressing an optimistic outlook on the future development prospects of POP MART, believing that its advantages in IP innovation, category expansion, and global expansion will continue to drive its sales growth. UBS pointed out:
“Our research on similar, popular toys (such as Squishmallows, Jellycat, etc.) and popular IPs (Hello Kitty) indicates that the upward cycle typically lasts for several years.”
The report noted that POP MART's success in Thailand is not solely due to the Instagram posts of BLACKPINK member Lisa. The local management team played a significant role in marketing through innovative events and exhibitions, continuously "gaining fans" on social media. In 2024, POP MART opened three new stores in Thailand and held several large marketing events.
In addition to the Labubu character, characters like Molly and Crybaby are also very popular, demonstrating the brand's potential in Southeast Asian countries. Crybaby is an IP created by a Thai artist. UBS stated that, thanks to local management efforts, its popularity in Thailand has surpassed that in China.
POP MART Crybaby character, source: POP MART official website
In the domestic market, POP MART's sales growth is supported by category expansion, new IP launches, and cross-brand marketing. According to UBS Evidence Lab's WeChat tracker, since the second half of 2022, the total reading volume of POP MART across 14 popular toy accounts has been increasing.
UBS believes that POP MART's overseas expansion will become its second-largest revenue growth engine, second only to the domestic market. POP MART attracts designers and consumers through its IP monetization capabilities, omnichannel strategy, and supply chain efficiency. UBS data shows that since October 2023, the number of likes and followers for POP MART on Instagram has been continuously increasing.
UBS stated that, compared to global peers, POP MART's valuation remains attractive. UBS raised its earnings per share forecast for POP MART for 2024 to 2026 by 13%-19% and increased its target price for 2024 from HKD 86.50 to HKD 120.00. This target price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.6 times for 2025 and predicts an average annual compound growth rate of 22% from 2025 to 2027