KeyBanc: Data shows Apple's sales performance is mediocre, maintaining a "reduce" rating
KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains a "Underweight" rating on Apple, with a target price of $200. Analysts pointed out that iPhone 16 sales were slightly above expectations, but demand for the base model is weak. Although iPhone sales increased by 2% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year, Black Friday sales rose by 9% year-on-year, spending in November decreased by 6% month-on-month. Overall data appears slightly negative for Apple, with growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 expected to be in line with historical averages
According to Zhitong Finance, after evaluating several survey data, KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains a "Underweight" rating on Apple (AAPL.US) with a target price of $200.
Analysts John Vinh and Brandon Nispel wrote in a report to clients: "Our survey of carriers shows that iPhone 16 sales in November were slightly above store expectations and normal seasonal trends. Demand for the iPhone 16 Pro/Max remains relatively healthy, but demand for the base model remains weak. Store inventory has slightly increased, remaining relatively healthy and below last year's levels. Interest in Apple's artificial intelligence is slightly higher, but overall it is still not a factor driving recent demand."
The analysts pointed out that KeyBanc's First Look data shows that iPhone sales increased by 2% month-over-month and 5% year-over-year, although below seasonal trends, they are still growing; sales during Black Friday increased by 9% year-over-year. The analysts stated that this batch of data is "moderately positive" for some companies in Apple's supply chain, including Broadcom (AVGO.US), Lattice Semiconductor (CRUS.US), Qualcomm (QCOM.US), Qorvo (QRVO.US), and Skyworks Solutions (SWKS.US).
However, the analysts noted that for Apple itself, the data may have a slightly negative impact, as it shows that related spending in November decreased by 6% month-over-month, below the three-year average increase of 3%. The analysts wrote: "The historical trends we see indicate that the iPhone 16 upgrade has not brought a significant boost, and considering that Apple released the new MacBook Pro around the same date in November this year as last year, we do not see any comparative issues. Overall, our data is slightly negative, and we expect growth in Q4 2024 to be roughly in line with Apple's historical average."