Qualcomm is to be abandoned! Apple will launch its first self-developed modem chip in the iPhone SE next year

According to media reports, Apple will launch its first self-developed modem chip with the iPhone SE in 2025. Apple hopes to replace the modem technology supplied by Qualcomm by 2027. At the same time, Apple will continue to use components from Broadcom and Skyworks in its devices.

According to Bloomberg News, after more than five years of development, Apple's self-developed modem system is expected to debut in the spring of next year. According to sources familiar with the matter, this component will be part of the iPhone SE. Subsequently, Apple plans to launch increasingly advanced next-generation chips.

Apple has been developing its modem for a long time. When Apple began developing this chip, it originally hoped to bring it to market as early as 2021. To expedite this work, the company invested billions of dollars to establish testing and engineering labs globally and spent about $1 billion to acquire Intel's modem division, as well as millions of dollars to recruit engineers from other chip companies.

However, this plan has faced setbacks for Apple over the years. Early prototypes were too large, overheated, and lacked energy efficiency. There were also concerns within the company that Apple's development of the modem was merely a retaliation against Qualcomm, as Apple lost a previous legal battle over licensing fees.

However, after adjusting the development process, restructuring management, and directly recruiting a large number of new engineers from Qualcomm, sources told the media that Apple is now confident in the project's success.

Although it may be abandoned by Apple, media reports indicate that Qualcomm has long been prepared for Apple's shift to self-developed modems. However, after the news broke, Qualcomm's stock price initially fell by 2%, later narrowing the decline to around 1%.

Another supplier that may be affected by Apple's modem project, Qorvo, saw its stock price drop by as much as 5.7%, later narrowing the decline to 3.6%.

Apple's stock price rose by less than 1%, later narrowing the increase.

Self-developed Modem Sinope's Performance Lags Behind Qualcomm

According to reports, the iPhone SE launching a few months later will feature some significant new capabilities, including "Apple Intelligence" and a full-screen design currently used in high-end models. However, the most groundbreaking update is the self-developed modem codenamed "Sinope," which consumers will not see from the outside.

Currently, this modem will not be used in Apple's high-end products. It is expected that later next year, this chip will be applied to a new mid-range iPhone codenamed D23, which will be designed thinner than the existing models This chip is expected to be promoted in Apple's low-end iPads starting in 2025.

To prepare for the launch of the iPhone SE, Apple is deploying hundreds of devices globally to conduct internal testing of the new modem while performing quality assurance testing with global carriers. Apple chose to start with low-end products partly because modem technology carries high risks: if the functionality is not perfect, users may experience dropped calls and missed notifications, and Apple's high-end products have little tolerance for such errors.

Additionally, Sinope's technology has not yet reached the level of Qualcomm's latest modems, which means that Apple's first modem is a downgrade compared to the Qualcomm components currently used in the iPhone 16 Pro.

The Sinope modem does not support 5G millimeter wave (mmWave). Instead, Apple's component will rely on the more widely used Sub-6 technology, which is also the technology currently used in the iPhone SE.

Furthermore, Sinope only supports four-carrier aggregation, while Qualcomm's modems can support six or more carrier aggregations.

Laboratory tests show that Apple's first modem has a maximum download speed of 4Gbps, lower than the maximum speed of Qualcomm's non-mmWave modems. However, in everyday use, the actual speeds of both modems are often much lower, so consumers may not notice a significant difference.

Nevertheless, Apple believes that the first modem has several other advantages: tight integration with Apple's custom main processor can reduce power consumption, scan cellular services more efficiently, and better support device connections to satellite networks.

Apple's modem will also be able to provide better performance relative to SAR (Specific Absorption Rate) limits, as it will be intelligently managed through the main processor. According to insiders, SAR is a measure of the body's absorption of radio frequency radiation, and government agencies like the Federal Communications Commission have regulations on acceptable levels.

Apple also plans to support DSDS (Dual SIM Dual Standby), which allows users to achieve data connectivity for two SIM cards while using dual numbers.

To develop the modem, Apple has rapidly expanded its office space in San Diego and other areas of Southern California, aiming to poach talent from Qualcomm. Executives involved in the modem development believe that the resources and talent acquired from Intel in 2019 were insufficient, and hiring from Qualcomm has helped Apple overcome early difficulties.

Qualcomm May Face More Troubles

Media reports indicate that the modem will work in conjunction with another new Apple component: a radio frequency front-end system (RFFE) codenamed Carpo, designed to help devices connect to cellular networks.

This component will also reduce Qualcomm's business and may ultimately impact Qorvo. Currently, Apple uses RF filters from Skyworks Solutions and Broadcom—this partnership will continue. Apple and Broadcom extended their supply agreement in 2023.

Broadcom's stock rose by as much as 4.7% to $178.55, while Skyworks Solutions' stock rose by as much as 2.6%

By 2026, Apple plans to get closer to Qualcomm's capabilities with its second-generation modem "Ganymede," which is expected to debut in the iPhone 18 series and be used in high-end iPads by 2027.

The main difference between Ganymede and the current Qualcomm modems is the added support for millimeter waves, with download speeds of up to 6Gbps, Sub-6 carrier aggregation supporting 6 carriers, and millimeter wave carrier aggregation supporting 8 carriers.

By 2027, Apple plans to launch its third-generation modem "Prometheus," hoping that its performance and artificial intelligence capabilities will surpass Qualcomm's. Additionally, this component will also have built-in support for next-generation satellite networks.

In the more distant future, Apple is discussing the possibility of integrating the modem and main processor into a single component