The major shift in smartphones! Apple launches the "De-Qualcomm Plan": striving to eliminate Qualcomm modems

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Mark Gurman, an Apple product leaker who has accurately revealed iPhone update details multiple times, stated in his latest post that Apple's (AAPL.US) research and development team is committed to building its own modem technology, which will lay an important foundation for a series of new devices, starting with thinner iPhone models, and it is very likely to be applied to Mac devices with built-in cellular network connections and high-end headsets. Gurman also revealed that Apple plans to launch its first modem in 2025, with a more advanced version expected in 2026, and the iterative modem in 2027 is expected to achieve superior energy efficiency, while these self-developed hardware will completely replace the modems supplied by Qualcomm (QCOM.US), which has been a long-term partner and competitor.

Gurman stated that some of Apple's new consumer electronics will embed a self-developed modem expected to debut next year, thereby replacing Qualcomm's modems. He indicated that this self-developed modem will be the core hardware connecting consumer electronic devices to mobile signal towers, and Apple aims to gradually replace Qualcomm's modems during the rollout of products over the next three years.

For many years, Apple's engineers and design teams, along with some executives, have complained that Qualcomm's modems and closely related components occupy too much space in the iPhone. Therefore, the company is attempting to design a new self-developed modem codenamed "Sinope," which will be more tightly integrated with other internal Apple components. This means it may require less space and battery power, significantly aiding Apple in launching a thinner AI iPhone.

According to Gurman, although the iPhone SE, set to debut next year, will be Apple's first device equipped with the new self-developed modem, this core network component will play an important role in the super-thin phone codenamed "D23," which is expected to launch later in 2025. This smartphone will be Apple's thinnest phone to date, expected to embed an upgraded version of Apple Intelligence, showcasing to fans why Apple insists on spending billions to replace Qualcomm, the leader in the mobile chip industry, with its own modem. Apple also plans to launch a more advanced version of its self-developed modem in 2026, with key performance metrics matching or even surpassing some of Qualcomm's.

By using its own exclusive custom modem, Apple can manufacture an AI smartphone that is about 2 millimeters thinner than the iPhone 16 Pro while still having enough space for the battery, display, and camera system. Over time, this shift may lead to other new designs, including potentially foldable devices—Apple is still exploring this concept.

A representative from Apple, headquartered in Cupertino, California, declined to comment on the news dynamics Apple is heavily developing its own modem and exploring the feasibility of introducing cellular connectivity to Mac devices for the first time. This means users can achieve high-speed internet access without Wi-Fi. So far, this cellular feature has been limited to the iPhone, Apple Watch, and iPad. However, Gurman expects that it is unlikely for Macs to achieve cellular connectivity before at least 2026, as Apple's current schedule is to launch the second-generation high-end modem in 2026, which is expected to support much faster operating speeds and larger data throughput.

Gurman stated that Apple is also discussing providing cellular network support for expensive headset devices (including future versions of the Vision Pro). One day, this technology could also be used for lightweight augmented reality glasses (i.e., VR glasses), although such "futuristic devices" will take several more years to be widely available.

Next year, some low-end iPads may also be equipped with this Apple-developed modem, while the major update in 2026 is expected to be applied to the Pro versions of the iPhone and iPad. It is anticipated that this high-end modem chip will be integrated to some extent with large AI models. Currently, according to Gurman, Apple is not developing its own custom modem for the Apple Watch.

Breaking! Apple plans to fully advance its modem within three years, striving to surpass Qualcomm

The modem system developed internally by Apple, after more than five years of continuous R&D investment, will make its debut next spring. This technology will be part of the company's entry-level smartphone, the iPhone SE, which will receive its first update since 2022 next year.

The modem is a key hardware component of any smartphone, enabling the device to connect to mobile signal towers to make calls and access the internet. Apple's R&D department aims to continue launching more advanced subsequent versions after the initial entry-level version of this hardware is released. Gurman stated that Apple's goal is to strive to ultimately surpass Qualcomm's modem technology by 2027.

In 2027, Apple plans to launch its third-generation modem, codenamed "Prometheus." By then, the company hopes to significantly surpass Qualcomm in terms of modem performance and AI capabilities. Additionally, it will support the next generation of satellite networks.

The development journey of Apple's modem has been fraught with challenges. When the company began working on this chip, it originally hoped to bring it to market as early as 2021. To accelerate the R&D process, the company invested billions of dollars to establish testing and engineering project laboratories around the world. Furthermore, the company spent approximately $1 billion to acquire Intel's modem division and recruited millions of engineers from other chip companies.

However, Apple faced setback after setback. Early prototype hardware was too large, overheated, and had serious energy efficiency issues. There were also concerns within Apple that the development of the modem was merely a retaliation against Qualcomm, as the two had previously engaged in a major legal dispute over licensing fees, in which Apple did not win However, after adjusting development practices, restructuring the R&D management team, and recruiting dozens of senior engineers from Qualcomm, Apple now believes its modem program will significantly succeed. This will be a major victory for Apple's hardware technology team led by Senior Vice President Johny Srouji.

Qualcomm's management has long been preparing for Apple to abandon its brand of modems, but according to data compiled by institutions, Qualcomm still derives over 20% of its revenue from this iPhone manufacturer, concentrated in Qualcomm modems. After media reports on Apple's related plans on Friday Eastern Time, Qualcomm's stock price fell by as much as 2%, reaching an intraday low.

Starting with low-end models, iterating the modem step by step

Qualcomm has a long-standing and deep accumulation of modem technology, especially in wireless communication protocols (such as CDMA, LTE, 5G), holding a large number of core patents. Statistics show that Qualcomm has a monopoly position in the smartphone baseband chip market, especially in the 4G LTE and 5G modem fields. Although Apple has its own R&D and design team, it has long been unable to independently develop products that compete with Qualcomm's technology in the modem field, being long "choked" by Qualcomm. However, starting in 2025, the modem market may undergo a "significant change."

According to Gurman, Apple has decided to start with low-end products, partly because modems are high-risk hardware: If they do not work properly, customers will face issues such as call interruptions, missed notifications, and signal loss. For Apple's highest-end iPhones, priced over $1,000, such situations are nearly intolerable.

Unlike today's high-end Qualcomm components, Apple's first-generation modem—the Sinope modem—does not support millimeter wave, a high-end 5G technology primarily used by Verizon Wireless and other carriers in major cities, theoretically capable of handling download speeds of up to 10 gigabits per second. In contrast, Apple's components will rely on the Sub-6 standard, which is a more common technology currently used by the iPhone SE.

Apple's first modem will also only support four-carrier aggregation, a technology that combines frequency bands from multiple wireless carriers to enhance network capacity and core speed. Qualcomm's modems, on the other hand, can support six or more carriers simultaneously.

In laboratory tests, Apple's first modem achieved a maximum download speed of about 4 gigabits per second, lower than the maximum speed offered by non-millimeter wave Qualcomm modems. However, the real-world speeds of both types of modems are usually much lower, meaning that in everyday use, users may not notice the difference between the two.

Regardless, Apple's first modem will have several other significant advantages, and Apple believes these advantages will give it an edge in consumer choice. First, it will be closely integrated with Apple's self-designed Apple main processor to reduce power consumption, improve processor performance, scan cellular services more efficiently, and better support device functions that connect to satellite networks. Apple's modem will be able to provide better performance relative to SAR limits, as it will be intelligently managed through the main processor. SAR, or Specific Absorption Rate, is a measure of the body's absorption of radio frequency, with acceptable levels set by government agencies such as the Federal Communications Commission.

Apple also plans to support Dual SIM Dual Standby (DSDS). This feature allows users to establish data connections on two SIM cards simultaneously when setting up two phone numbers for the device. Apple's self-developed modem is expected to work in conjunction with another new Apple core component—the Radio Frequency Front End (RFFE) Carpo, which assists devices in connecting to cellular networks.

In 2026, Apple aims to approach Qualcomm's hardware performance with its second-generation modem, which is expected to start appearing in higher-end products. This modem, codenamed "Ganymede," is anticipated to enter the iPhone 18 series that year and the high-end iPad series in early 2027.

The biggest difference is that Ganymede will catch up with Qualcomm's current modems by increasing support for millimeter wave (mmWave), achieving download speeds of 6 gigabits per second, utilizing six-carrier aggregation when using Sub-6, and eight-carrier aggregation when using millimeter wave.

According to the schedule revealed by Gurman, Apple's current plan is to launch its third-generation modem, codenamed "Prometheus," in 2027, at which point the company will significantly surpass Qualcomm in core modem performance and artificial intelligence capabilities. Gurman also stated that Apple is exploring the possibility of merging its modem and "Apple main processor" into a single component