Under the super cycle, China's shipbuilding is far ahead
Against the backdrop of global economic recovery and the warming of international trade, China's shipbuilding industry has ushered in a "super cycle," with new ship orders significantly increasing, expected to rise from 3,591 in 2021 to 5,049 in 2024, an increase of nearly 41%. Chinese shipyards have enhanced their global market share through expansion and resumption of operations, currently accounting for nearly 65% of the order share, a significant increase from less than 10% in 2000. Meanwhile, the market shares of traditional shipbuilding powerhouses Japan and South Korea have significantly declined, facing challenges in technology and human resources
According to news from the shipping industry network, following the gradual reopening of the global economy and the recovery of international trade in the post-pandemic era, the demand for new shipbuilding has significantly surged. This trend is reflected in global orders, with the number of new ship orders increasing from 3,591 in 2021 to 5,049 by November 2024, a growth of nearly 41%.
However, the surge in demand has also led to tight shipyard slots and extended delivery times. Chinese shipyards have seized this historic opportunity, steadily increasing their share of global orders.
Rapid Expansion of Shipbuilding Capacity
The shipbuilding industry is entering a "super cycle," and Chinese shipyards are leading the necessary expansion of shipbuilding capacity by restarting and expanding to increase new shipbuilding capabilities. Nantong Xiangyu is one of the shipyards leading this expansion trend, increasing its annual production capacity by 60% through the acquisition of Jiangsu Hongqiang. New Era Shipbuilding plans to invest 5 billion yuan to promote its intelligent manufacturing project for new energy vessels. Hengli Heavy Industry is also expanding its capacity, investing 11 billion yuan to expand its dry dock, which will double its annual shipbuilding capacity. Another large private shipbuilding company in China, Yangtze River Shipbuilding Group, has also announced investments to create a green ship manufacturing base and expand shipyard capacity to respond to the new round of prosperity in the new shipbuilding market.
Significant Increase in Market Share
To gain a deeper understanding of the market fundamentals, it is necessary to look at the evolution of orders from Chinese, Japanese, and South Korean shipyards, as well as their share of global orders.
In short, the rapid expansion of China's shipbuilding industry is attributed to improvements in technology, enhanced innovation capabilities, market opportunities from global industrial transfer, and a strong workforce. Chinese shipbuilding has become a market leader, currently accounting for nearly 65% of the total global shipbuilding orders, compared to less than 10% in 2000, achieving impressive growth.
At the same time, the order share of Japanese and South Korean shipyards has decreased from 78% to 31% during the same period. Nevertheless, traditional shipbuilding powerhouses like South Korea and Japan still possess strong competitiveness. South Korean shipyards still hold a significant proportion of high-value-added ship orders, particularly LNG vessels, while Japan's shipbuilding industry has a long history and deep foundation. However, they are faced with a harsh reality—a lack of skilled industrial workers unable to meet the surge in market demand, leading to a sharp decline in market share.
Data from Greek brokerage Intermodal shows that as of November 2024, the order volume of Chinese shipyards reached 3,256 vessels, with a total deadweight tonnage of 224 million deadweight tons, an increase of 37% compared to 2023 and 72% compared to 2022 In terms of new orders, Chinese shipyards still dominate, receiving 1,338 vessels with a total of 103.9 million deadweight tons, accounting for 70% of global orders. Notably, Chinese shipyards received 89% of global container ship orders, 81% of bulk carrier orders, and 74% of tanker contracts.
China's rise as a dominant force in the global shipbuilding industry can be attributed to several factors, including strong government support, investment in new technologies, a strong industrial workforce, and large-scale production capabilities. Additionally, the complete industrial chain is also a significant reason for the rapid rise of Chinese shipbuilding.
In other words, from an economic perspective, this is also an inevitable result of market competition, reflecting the changes in the global economic structure. In summary, those who can grasp, adapt to, and meet market demands will occupy the market.
Looking ahead, with the current strong global demand for new shipbuilding, steady growth in orders, and rising new ship prices, the Chinese shipbuilding industry will continue to expand further and maintain its leading position.
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