Zhitong Decision Reference | Market expectations have become optimistic, consumer electronics and robotics are worth paying attention to

Under various sanctions, countermeasures have finally been launched, and the Hang Seng Index has shown a two-week upward trend.

This week, the overall news is relatively optimistic. In November, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 227,000, the largest increase since March, exceeding the market expectation of 200,000. However, the unemployment rate in November was 4.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. Next, we will observe the U.S. November CPI data this Wednesday. As long as there are signs of inflation reduction, the probability of a rate cut in December remains high.

The market expects that important meetings in December may be held on Wednesday and Thursday. We will observe whether the meeting's setting of economic goals for next year and the statements regarding fiscal stimulus and monetary policy exceed expectations.

On the evening of December 7, Xinhua News Agency published an article titled "How to View the Monetary Policy's Efforts to Stabilize Growth - Current Q&A on China's Economy." The article pointed out that based on the present and future, how can monetary policy better promote stable growth? The People's Bank of China has already sent a clear signal, and it can be anticipated that future monetary policy will continue to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments.

Xinhua News Agency: The central government still has considerable room for borrowing and increasing the deficit.

With both fiscal and monetary policies working to boost the economy, market expectations have become optimistic, and the capital market is also expected to respond positively this week. The Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Action Plan for Strengthening Regulation, Preventing Risks, Promoting Reform, and Driving High-Quality Development of the Property Insurance Industry," supporting qualified foreign financial institutions to invest in China's property insurance market. Insurance stocks will become the mainstay for stabilizing the market.

In terms of consumption, Jiangsu, Guizhou, and other regions will include mobile phones in the subsidy range. The "national subsidy" still has considerable potential for expansion in categories and scale. Consumer electronics are worth continuous attention. According to CCID, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's robotics industry scale is expected to grow to around 400 billion yuan, and Huawei has increased its investment in Dongguan Jimu Robotics. Robots are set to receive new catalysts.

In November, foreign exchange reserves increased by 4.8 billion USD, and after a six-month pause, gold holdings were increased again; under the tense situation in the Middle East and Syria, gold may bring new expectations.

【This Week's Golden Stock】

Chalk (02469)

Since 2020, the number of national examination recruits has rapidly increased, reaching 39,600 in 2024, which is 1.7 times the number of recruits in 2019. However, the number of applicants has also significantly increased, with the number of participants in the national examination reaching 1.017 million, 1.422 million, 1.948 million, and 2.252 million from 2021 to 2024, with the admission ratio rising year by year. In the first half of the year, Chalk achieved revenue of 1.63 billion yuan and a net profit of 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 240.9%.

In 2025, the number of applicants for the national examination reached a new high, with a 13% increase in applicants, and the admission rate further decreased, which is expected to stimulate the demand for recruitment training. The company announced the latest mock exam data for the national examination. The data shows that the total number of participants in Chalk's 2025 national examination mock exams increased by 32% year-on-year, reaching a new high. The number of applicants for the national examination continues to rise, and as an industry leader, Chalk is expected to benefit from this. The company's performance in the first half of 2024 has also seen significant growth, with monthly active users exceeding 9 million, showing impressive results. Chalk has strong content development capabilities and a high-quality teacher reserve. As of July 2024, the research and teaching department has accumulated nearly 500 million dialogues between teaching assistants and users, 3.75 billion practice exercises in the question bank, and 61.3 billion question attempts In terms of products, the company will launch its first self-developed large model focused on the vocational education industry in July 2024. The newly launched AI-assisted education products "Chalk AI Teacher" and the college entrance examination simulation system "Chalk Mock Exam" have received market favor, with overall question-and-answer performance being excellent, which is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness and user willingness to pay in the AI + education field. As the OMO model continues to deepen, the advantages of online operations and continuous AI empowerment are expected to improve efficiency, leaving room for profit margin improvement.

【Industry Observation】

On the morning of December 8th, Beijing time, the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), merged by the U.S. Congress, was officially submitted, marking one of the last pieces of legislation expected to be advanced by Congress this year. The official version of the NDAA does not include the Biosecurity Act. Previously, House Speaker Mike Johnson indicated that the Biosecure could be attached to the annual defense spending bill. The release of this official version of the NDAA signals the end of the fast-track approval process for the bill.

With external pressures weakening, the CXO prosperity cycle is expected to begin.

1. Interest rate cut cycle initiated: On September 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.75%-5%, marking the first rate cut since March 2020. A further cut of 25 basis points is expected in December 2024.

2. Improvement in investment and financing: From January to November 2024, there were a total of 2,048 financing events in the global healthcare sector (excluding IPOs, private placements, etc.), amounting to USD 53.92 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. The financing amount has accelerated since August.

3. Acceleration of performance orders: In Q3 2024, revenue grew sequentially: Q3 2024 CDMO sector's total operating revenue was CNY 21.351 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.23%. The industry bottom has basically stabilized, and with the growth of orders, it is expected to build a bottom and rebound.

Key stocks to focus on in the Hong Kong market include WuXi AppTec (02359), WuXi Biologics (02269), Kanglong Chemical (03759), Kelun Pharmaceutical (06821), Tigermed (03347), and Zhaoyan New Drug (06127).

【Data Monitoring】

According to data released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the total number of open contracts for the Hang Seng Index futures (December) is 101,425, with a net open position of 34,224 contracts. The settlement date for the Hang Seng Index futures is December 30, 2024.

From the distribution of bullish and bearish positions in the Hang Seng Index at the 19,866 point level, the bear certificate concentration area is close to the central axis, indicating that there is room for a rebound in Hong Kong stocks. The latest economic data suggests that the Chinese economy may have bottomed out, and the market anticipates that the Central Economic Work Conference will deploy financial policy measures for next year, with a bullish outlook for the Hang Seng Index this week.

[Editor's Note]

From the perspective of short interest, the short selling ratio of Hong Kong stocks has begun to rise since early November, with the current short selling transaction amount accounting for 15.1% of the total market transaction amount, higher than the average level of 14.5% since 2014.

Last week, the Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rebound, with the increase mainly concentrated on Friday. The intraday chart of southbound funds also showed signs of concentrated inflow from foreign traders on that day. The rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut can also reduce disturbances to Hong Kong stocks. However, the recent recovery is not solely due to the calendar effect before important meetings, but more so due to improved expectations for trading policies. If domestic policy measures remain moderate and limited, a fluctuating structure will still be the baseline scenario.

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