The stock price is expected to achieve its best performance since 1999; how long can Oracle's cloud business continue to explode?
In the past year, thanks to the high technical requirements for training artificial intelligence models and support from major clients, Oracle's cloud infrastructure business has rapidly expanded. Wall Street analysts expect that the company's department will generate over $10 billion in sales in the fiscal year ending May 2025
The once-struggling cloud business has regained investor favor, and the stock price is expected to achieve its best annual performance since 1999... Oracle has truly seen the "cloud" clear and the moon bright.
Over the past year, thanks to the high technical requirements for training artificial intelligence models and support from major clients like Uber Technologies and TikTok, Oracle's cloud infrastructure business has rapidly expanded. Today, after the U.S. stock market closes, Oracle will announce its second fiscal quarter earnings report.
Wall Street analysts expect that the company’s division will generate over $10 billion in sales for the fiscal year ending May 2025. So far this year, Oracle's stock price has risen over 84% driven by investor enthusiasm. Analysts point out that if this trend continues, the stock will achieve its largest annual increase since 1999.
Continued Growth in Cloud Business, Oracle May Gain Larger Share
Currently, the cloud computing business is dominated by larger competitors like Amazon Web Services and Microsoft, with Oracle holding only a single-digit share of the cloud infrastructure market. However, analysts believe that as demand for AI services increases, the market is expected to continue expanding.
Additionally, some analysts point out that while many software companies are facing slowing revenue growth due to tightened corporate budgets and changing spending habits, Oracle is one of the few large software companies that has accelerated its revenue growth in recent quarters, largely thanks to its cloud infrastructure business.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Rishi Jaluria stated:
"At least in the short term, Oracle should be able to continue winning significant market share from startups like Cohere and Musk's xAI."
Moreover, Oracle's current Chief Technology Officer and Chairman of the Board, Ellison, has seen his wealth increase alongside Oracle's stock price rise, making him the fourth richest person in the world according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
From a Decade Behind to a "Small but Beautiful" Comeback
However, Oracle's journey to this point has not been without its challenges. Founded in 1977, the Oracle database once dominated the corporate world, bringing high profits and growth. But from 2010 to 2019, the company's stock performance not only lagged behind industry benchmark indices but also fell far behind software peers like Salesforce and Adobe.
In 2016, Oracle launched its cloud infrastructure services for the first time but struggled to gain attention. It wasn't until 2022 that customers and investors began to take Oracle's cloud business seriously. Guggenheim Securities analyst John DiFucci stated, “I’ve heard that Oracle’s services have advantages in cost and performance compared to other providers.” TD Cowen analyst Derrick Wood also stated:
"Oracle may not be an early leader in cloud services, but its persistent development efforts, significant influence in the IT field, and considerable market share give it a unique position in customer account leverage."