Behind the "crazy surge" of Bitcoin: Less than 6% of coins remain to be "mined," with an estimated mining time of 116 years

Last week, the price of Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark for the first time, and market optimism for cryptocurrencies reached its peak.

Supporters are thrilled and predict that there is still room for price increases. This is because, according to Bitcoin's protocol, the total supply of Bitcoin is strictly limited to 21 million.

However, there are also dissenting voices in the market. Bitcoin skeptics argue that Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value, its price is highly volatile, and it is easily influenced by market sentiment. They worry that if market confidence wanes, the price of Bitcoin could experience a significant drop.

As time goes on, the difficulty of mining Bitcoin continues to increase, and the remaining Bitcoin will become scarcer. Currently, less than 6% of the coins have yet to be "mined." Alexander Osipovich, a columnist for The Wall Street Journal, stated that it is expected that by 2140, the supply of Bitcoin will stop increasing, and no new Bitcoins will be generated.

21 Million Digital Gold: The "Scarcity Beauty" of Bitcoin

In 2009, the Bitcoin genesis block was born. The idea of its founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, was simple: since governments can print money, let's create a currency that cannot be arbitrarily inflated. He also cleverly designed a hard cap for Bitcoin and stated:

"Escape the arbitrary inflation risk of centrally managed currency! The total circulation of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million coins."

The generation of Bitcoin requires "mining," which involves using computers to solve complex mathematical problems. Every four years, the mining reward is halved until the supply of Bitcoin stops increasing. This is expected to occur around 2140, which is 116 years from now. Currently, less than 6% of the coins have yet to be "mined."

Although it is theoretically possible to increase the hard cap by modifying the Bitcoin protocol, achieving global consensus is extremely difficult due to Bitcoin's decentralized nature. Furthermore, raising the hard cap could lead to a decline in Bitcoin's price, harming the interests of existing holders. Therefore, most analysts indicate that the likelihood of changing the hard cap is extremely low.

According to data from Bitcoin brokerage River, approximately 1.5 million Bitcoins—worth about $150 billion—are unrecoverable due to lost keys. Additionally, the "disappearance" of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, has left nearly 1 million Bitcoins in a dormant state. These losses mean that the number of Bitcoins circulating in the market may be far lower than expected.

River estimates that individual investors hold about 14.7 million Bitcoins, accounting for approximately 70% of the final supply. Once these investors choose to exit, the market will face tremendous selling pressure, leading to significant fluctuations in Bitcoin's price.

Under the "Buy Bitcoin" Frenzy, the Market Landscape Quietly Changes

In recent years, more and more institutions have begun to incorporate Bitcoin into their asset allocation, including listed companies, financial institutions, and governments.

For example, tech giants like MicroStrategy and Tesla have purchased large amounts of Bitcoin, while some exchanges have also issued Bitcoin ETFs, representing investors holding Bitcoin.

Trump has repeatedly expressed his favor for Bitcoin and promised to establish a national Bitcoin reserve. If Trump's plan is implemented, it would mean that the U.S. government would become one of the largest holders of Bitcoin in the world.

He stated in July:

“For a long time, our government has violated the basic rule that every Bitcoin enthusiast knows by heart: never sell your Bitcoin.”