Trump's DOGE department plans to cut expenses, Morgan Stanley is bearish on US defense stocks
JP Morgan analysts pointed out that the DOGE department of the Trump administration plans to cut spending, leading to a greater risk of budget cuts for U.S. defense stocks in 2025. The analysts downgraded the valuations of companies such as Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics, and revised their price targets. Despite potential adverse factors, the outlook is not entirely pessimistic due to congressional support and global threats
According to Zhitong Finance, JP Morgan analysts stated that as the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) seeks ways to reduce the deficit, aerospace and defense companies will face greater risks of federal budget cuts next year. They have lowered their valuation multiples for companies such as Lockheed Martin (LMT.US), Raytheon Technologies (RTX.US), Northrop Grumman (NOC.US), and General Dynamics (GD.US) to reflect these risks. JP Morgan has revised down the price targets for these companies for 2025.
JP Morgan analyst Seth Seifman stated, "We believe the U.S. elections will bring some potential headwinds for defense stocks, including a hawkish stance from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), which may cut support for Ukraine, and of course, the U.S. Department of Defense. However, the outlook is not entirely pessimistic due to some congressional support for increased budgets and a challenging global threat environment."
JP Morgan also believes that vendors providing information technology services to the government face similar challenges. The bank has lowered the earnings multiple expectations for companies including Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH.US), CACI International (CACI.US), and Leidos (LDOS.US). Seifman said, "What DOGE will do is still unclear, and we can consider how service contractors can facilitate its efforts. Nevertheless, there are still some incremental risks."