Zhitong Decision Reference | Focus on Initial Public Offering Economy, Agricultural Machinery May Have Stimulus

[Editor’s Market View]

Last week's two major meetings were undoubtedly key factors driving the rebound of the Hang Seng Index. However, after the meetings concluded, the market returned to a state of disappointment and normalcy.

Over the weekend, several ministries made concentrated statements. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the importance of "stabilizing the real estate and stock markets" and maintaining stability in the capital market. It aims to deepen comprehensive reforms in capital market investment and financing and promote the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market. It encourages mergers and acquisitions aimed at industrial integration and upgrading. The Ministry of Finance stated that next year it will implement a more proactive fiscal policy to ensure sustained and stronger fiscal efforts. Wang Xin, director of the Research Bureau of the People's Bank of China, mentioned that monetary policy support will be moderately increased, with timely cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates, and an increase in monetary credit supply. It remains to be seen whether this type of verbal support can have a substantial impact on Hong Kong stocks.

This week, the market's focus is on the Federal Reserve meeting, where a 50 basis point rate cut is a given, but the key point is Jerome Powell's forward guidance on rate cuts for next year.

Current market hotspots remain in the large consumption sector. Sheng Qiuping, vice minister of commerce, stated that policies to promote the "first launch economy" will be expedited. The first launch economy essentially falls under the category of new consumption, and the market is expected to explore this repeatedly.

On Friday evening, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting, mentioning the need to significantly enhance the level of agricultural technology and equipment, which may stimulate agricultural machinery. This week marks the 25th anniversary of Macau's return to the motherland, so we will observe whether there are any movements in Macau gaming stocks.

[This Week's Golden Stock]

JNBY (03306)

Recently, JNBY announced a related transaction, acquiring 100% equity of Hangzhou Muli Brand Management from Huizhan Technology. The latter's main brand "B1ock" is a department store brand that integrates contemporary art and lifestyle aesthetics, with a cash consideration of 1.67 million. In the first half of the year, the company's revenue was 5.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, and net profit was 850 million yuan, nearly a 40% year-on-year increase. Gross profit reached 3.47 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year, with the gross profit margin rising from 65.3% to 66.3%.

Comment: The main brand of the target company, "B1ock," is a department store brand that integrates contemporary art and lifestyle aesthetics. It possesses comprehensive capabilities in avant-garde fashion, art curation, and creative retail, allowing it to deliver more high-quality artistic content. The acquisition is expected to generate synergies through cross-selling, providing a wider range of choices for the group's existing customers, aligning with the group's multi-brand scaling development strategy. The company's performance continues to grow. With multi-brand and scaled operations, the company currently operates multiple brands, including the mature brand JNBY, which accounts for 56.2% of total revenue; a growth brand portfolio, such as Sketch, jnby by JNBY, and LESS, which accounts for 41.7% of total revenue; and an emerging brand portfolio, such as POMME DE TERRE and onmygame.

This year, JNBY acquired the emerging sports menswear brand OMG and its children's brand onmygame, entering the outdoor sports sector. The JNBY + Art concept store in Chengdu IFS officially opened on November 2, becoming the largest concept store in Southwest China. It is reported that over the past five years, JNBY has adopted a prudent store opening strategy, gradually increasing the number of physical stores each year to better serve a wide range of consumers Currently, the total number of offline stores of JNBY has reached 2,024. Since its listing, JNBY has adhered to high dividends, with an average payout ratio of 76% over the past five years. The company's dividend yield is high. The company's ROE ranks among the top in the consumer goods industry, with an average ROE of 35.7% over the past three years and an average ROE of 33.4% over the past five years. The company's high ROE and high dividends highlight its investment value, with three strategic drivers—multi-brand matrix, design-driven, and fan economy—driving revenue growth.

【Industry Observation】

The Central Economic Work Conference on December 12 pointed out: "Expand service consumption and promote the development of the cultural tourism industry by 2025. Actively develop the first economy, ice and snow economy, and silver-haired economy."

On November 17, the General Office of the State Council issued a document stating that ice and snow sports should lead the development of the entire industrial chain of ice and snow culture, ice and snow equipment, and ice and snow tourism, promoting the ice and snow economy to become a new growth point. The 2023-24 snow season is the first complete snow season after the Beijing Winter Olympics, with the number of participants in ice and snow sports nationwide reaching 264 million, a participation rate of 18.7%, and the scale of the ice and snow industry is expected to exceed one trillion yuan by 2025.

Data shows that outdoor apparel is currently the fastest-growing category. According to forecasts from Euromonitor, although the overall growth rate of domestic footwear and apparel consumption from 2024 to 2028 is only 3.5%, the growth rates for outdoor footwear/apparel are as high as 13%/12%, making them the fastest-growing subcategories.

Among them, outdoor brands have shown impressive growth: in H1 2024, DESCENTE and KOLON saw revenue increase by 42%, Saucony and Merrell by 72%, and X-BIONIC by 39%. Many companies are crossing over into outdoor series: for example, Bosideng launched a sales campaign for its down jackets and outdoor jackets, while ZARA and H&M released ski series apparel.

Hong Kong stocks to watch:

Anta Sports (02020): Descente and Amer Sports' Arc'teryx, Peak Performance, Salomon, and Atomic are all involved in ice and snow sports apparel or equipment, with a PE of 16 times for 2025.

Bosideng (03998): In November, it launched a co-branded series "Erbin & Bosideng" with Harbin, combining the classic Extreme Series with ice and snow culture, with a FY25 PE of 12X and a dividend yield of 7%.

【Data Monitoring】

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced that the total number of open contracts for the Hang Seng Index futures (December) is 103,966, with a net open interest of 34,841 contracts. The settlement date for the Hang Seng Index futures is December 30, 2024.

From the distribution of bullish and bearish positions in the Hang Seng Index at the 19,971 point level, the concentrated area for bullish certificates is close to the central axis, indicating downward momentum for Hong Kong stocks. The possibility of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts next year is not small, but the timing is uncertain. The Hang Seng Index is bearish this week.

【Editor's Remarks】 Goldman Sachs trading desk shows that LOs are gradually entering the consumer goods sector, including automobiles and home appliances. The liquor sector is showing a slight two-way improvement, mainly selling. The liquidity in consumer electronics remains light but has slightly improved, mainly buying. Elsewhere, there has been a net outflow in the semiconductor zzkk theme and the healthcare sector. The buying skew of Goldman Sachs' Hong Kong trading department is 1.4 times (narrowed from an earlier 2 times buying skew), with inflows into banking (China Construction Bank), shipping, technology (Xiaomi), and two-way trading in consumer goods—this provides a clue that at this point in time, it is crucial to pay close attention to the layout in the consumer sector.

Last week, Mao Ge Ping performed as expected, and currently, the new stock with high public interest is Yuejiang. Although the company is still losing money, it has a story to tell. Subscribe at your discretion.

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