Understanding the Market | Chinese brokerage stocks continued to decline in the afternoon, with increased market volatility dragging down sector performance. Citigroup stated that brokerage stock prices may have peaked
Chinese brokerage stocks continued to decline in the afternoon, with Guolian Sec down 3.48%, CMS down 3.33%, CITIC Securities down 2.48%, and CSC down 1.92%. The market experienced increased volatility due to fluctuations in government bond yields, expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S., and policy impacts, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3,400 points. Citigroup believes that brokerage stock prices may be too high, as traditional H-shares and A-shares of brokerages have risen by approximately 70% and 40%, respectively, since the policy announcement in September
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Chinese brokerage stocks continued to decline in the afternoon. As of the time of publication, Guolian Securities (01456) fell by 3.48% to HKD 4.71; CMS (06099) dropped by 3.33% to HKD 15.7; CITIC Securities (06030) decreased by 2.48% to HKD 21.65; and CSC (06066) fell by 1.92% to HKD 10.2.
Great Wall Securities pointed out today that the market is affected by the downward fluctuation of the ten-year treasury yield, volatility in U.S. interest rate cut expectations, policy statements introduced at the economic conference, and fluctuations in northbound capital. The market has seen increased volatility, and the brokerage sector has experienced some adjustments, with a significant adjustment on Friday, causing the Shanghai Composite Index to drop below 3,400 points. Domestic and international events will face important intersections, and the market is entering a critical observation period.
Citi previously released a research report stating that since the policy was announced in September, regulatory agencies have been committed to establishing a "slow bull market" to help boost domestic demand and promote the reallocation of household assets towards stocks. Although the market has reacted positively to the policy center, the bank believes that the current prices of Chinese brokerage stocks may be too high. Since late September, the average increase of H-shares and A-shares of traditional brokerages has been approximately 70% and 40%, respectively. The bank indicated that due to the lower sensitivity of earnings to bull market conditions in 2024 compared to 2015, its sensitivity analysis shows that brokerages cannot provide sufficient net asset return increases to justify the current price-to-book ratios after re-rating