Argentina Economic Milestone: Third Quarter GDP Growth

Argentina's economy ended a severe recession in the third quarter of this year, marking a milestone in the efforts of liberal President Javier Milei to end the country's long-standing crisis.

According to data from the Argentine National Institute of Statistics and Censuses, the country's GDP grew by 3.9% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2024, marking the first quarterly growth since Argentina fell into recession at the end of 2023. Compared to the same period in 2023, GDP decreased by 2.1%.

Economic growth was primarily driven by a rebound in consumer spending and capital investment, along with sustained strong growth in agricultural and mining exports, while manufacturing and construction sectors remain deeply sluggish.

Since taking office, Milei has implemented severe spending cuts and large-scale deregulation policies, which have helped reduce the country's triple-digit annual inflation rate and earned him praise from figures such as former U.S. President Donald Trump and Elon Musk.

On Monday, prices of Argentina's sovereign bonds rose, with investors demanding a premium to hold its debt relative to U.S. Treasuries that fell by 4.4% to 677 basis points, down from over 2,000 basis points when Milei took office.

JP Morgan expects Argentina's economy to contract by 3% in 2024 but forecasts a growth of 5.2% in 2025, which would restore per capita GDP to 2021 levels.

Despite the economic rebound, the Milei government still faces challenges, including the removal of capital and currency controls that hinder foreign investment and impede the central bank's accumulation of hard currency reserves.

Analysts warn that if Milei wants to win the midterm elections at the end of 2025, he must achieve sustained economic growth to improve the living standards of Argentinians