The short-term effects of export grabbing and consumer subsidies are 明显， with strong performance in the European service industry offsetting weak manufacturing, while China enters a policy vacuum period---1217 Macro Dehydration

Industrial production showed a slight improvement in November, possibly driven by the "export rush" effect, with demand continuing to improve moderately. Real estate sales returned to positive year-on-year growth, but the growth rate of retail sales may have declined due to the preemptive impact of the "Double Eleven" shopping festival. Retail in home appliances and automobiles still maintained strong growth, reflecting that the "trade-in" policy continues to provide support.

The Eurozone composite PMI unexpectedly rose at the end of the year, but still remains below 50, indicating a significant improvement in service sector activity, returning to the expansion zone, while manufacturing output further deteriorated, consistent with the ongoing drag from rising trade policy uncertainty.

Actual GDP growth is still expected to achieve this year's target of "around 5.0%." Retail sales fell due to weakened "Double Eleven" promotions and the expiration of trade-in subsidies. Real estate sales achieved year-on-year growth for the first time since mid-2023. Looking ahead, policy support remains the most important driving force for China's economy and market. The next two months may be a policy vacuum period. It is expected that during this period, monetary policy will mainly support the economy, with potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions possibly occurring as early as the first quarter