"New Federal Reserve News Agency": Internal doubts within the Federal Reserve are rising, and this week's interest rate cut may end the first phase of the rate cut cycle

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this week is basically "set in stone," and the market's focus has shifted to seeking clues about the Fed's subsequent rate cut path.

Recently, Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the "new Fed whisperer," stated that there is no consensus within the Federal Reserve on whether to continue cutting rates. If the economy continues to grow steadily, the rationale for further rate cuts will become less clear.

Timiraos noted that recent signals from Fed officials suggest that this week's rate cut may mark the end of the first step in the two-step rate cut plan. In the first step, the threshold for cutting rates is relatively low due to previously high interest rates. Officials began cutting rates in September, first by a significant 50 basis points, followed by a 25 basis point cut last month. If rates are cut again this week, it will be the third consecutive cut.

Timiraos pointed out that recent communications from the Fed indicate that in the quarterly rate forecasts and comments during Wednesday's press conference, Fed officials and Powell will adopt a more cautious tone regarding further rate cuts.

Timiraos believes that given Powell faces greater skepticism from colleagues about rate cuts, the easiest course of action is to cut rates this week and provide guidance suggesting that the Fed may hold one or more meetings before cutting rates again. Officials predicted four rate cuts next year during the September meeting, but their latest forecasts may show a reduction of one or two rate cuts by 2025.

Rising "Internal Doubts" at the Fed

Over the past year, Fed officials have gradually raised their forecasts for the neutral interest rate, and Timiraos believes they may continue to do so in this week's predictions. The closer the Fed gets to estimating the neutral rate, the weaker the rationale for rate cuts becomes if inflation remains firm and the labor market does not weaken.

Some officials have begun signaling that they need to see more concrete evidence that inflation is improving or that the labor market is deteriorating before they will continue to lower borrowing costs.

Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack stated earlier this month, "We are at or near a point where it makes sense to slow the pace of rate cuts." She cited two cases from the 1990s when the Fed quickly cut rates by a total of 0.75 percentage points and then held steady.

Timiraos indicated that some officials may oppose further rate cuts because they believe the economy does not need lower rates and that rates are closer to neutral than most models suggest. Some officials may be concerned that continuing to cut rates amid rapid increases in asset prices like stocks and Bitcoin could stimulate spending and prevent inflation from declining further.

Several officials also believe that the rationale supporting last month's rate cut will still be valid at least one more time. Dean Maki, chief economist at hedge fund Point72 Asset Management, stated, "The rationale for cutting rates is that they still believe they have a long way to go to reach neutral, and... inflation does seem to be on a downward trend."Timiraos stated that if the widely expected interest rate cut is not provided this week, it may cause more confusion regarding what the Federal Reserve is doing and why. Recent developments in inflation and the labor market may not yet be significant enough to change officials' forecasts for the next year or two, which are most relevant when considering setting interest rates.

Furthermore, even with a 0.25 percentage point cut, rates would still be above most reasonable neutral estimates, which range from about 2.5% to 4%. The Federal Reserve's benchmark federal funds rate is currently around 4.6%. Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn believes, "It seems there is still a distance of 50 to 75 basis points."

Trump Uncertainty

Timiraos indicated that this week's meeting may deepen the debate on two issues, which could define the direction of interest rates over the next year: one is the position of the neutral rate mentioned above, and the other is the policy changes of President-elect Donald Trump.

Trump's election as president could reshape the outlook for growth, employment, and inflation through changes in trade, immigration, regulation, and tax policies.

Powell previously stated that the Federal Reserve should not speculate or take risks regarding the impact of these policies. Federal Reserve officials, including Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic and St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem, believe it is too early to incorporate "potential policy changes" into consideration.

However, some former officials argue that the Federal Reserve should factor in potential changes in immigration and trade into their forecasts, as these policies do not require congressional approval.

Eric Rosengren, who served as president of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank from 2007 to 2021, stated that when making predictions in mid-December, it is difficult to ignore what will happen on January 20