Dah Sing Financial: The Hang Seng Index may challenge 23,100 points upward in the first half of next year, with a relatively positive outlook for high-yield stocks and the domestic consumption sector

Zhitong Finance APP learned that Dah Sing Financial has released its economic and market outlook for 2025. The institution predicts that Hong Kong's economy will grow by 2.8% in 2025, and the Hang Seng Index may test 23,100 points in the first half of next year, with support around the 17,000-point level; high-yield stocks, domestic consumption, and sectors supported by national policies may have a more positive outlook.

Dah Sing Financial's Chief Economist and Strategist, Wen Jiawei, stated that the outlook for interest rate cuts by major central banks is uncertain, coupled with geopolitical tensions, which may increase volatility in Hong Kong stocks. He expects the Hang Seng Index to have certain support around 17,000 points temporarily. If measures to stabilize the economy and the property market lead to a recovery in economic growth and effectively boost corporate profit prospects, it may help the Hang Seng Index test 23,100 points in the first half of next year.

He mentioned that the mainland has rarely introduced extensive financial and monetary measures, and the Central Economic Work Conference indicated a need to stabilize the property and stock markets, which will also raise the fiscal deficit target and vigorously boost consumption, reflecting the mainland's determination to stabilize the economy and the real estate market. However, it will take some time to observe whether these measures can truly be effective.

He pointed out that Hong Kong's overall economy will continue to face many challenges next year, as the consumption patterns of mainland visitors and those traveling to Hong Kong have changed, affecting the development of Hong Kong's retail industry. The restoration of the "one visa, multiple entries" policy in Shenzhen may have limited effects on promoting retail and attracting overnight visitors. Considering that local demand has not improved and exports are also under pressure, it is estimated that Hong Kong's economy will grow by 2.8% in 2025.

Wen Jiawei also mentioned that Hong Kong's best lending rate has begun to follow the U.S. in declining, and mortgage rates have also fallen accordingly. Additionally, the Hong Kong government has relaxed the mortgage ratio for residential investment properties, which helps stabilize property prices and boost transaction volumes. However, the potential supply of new residential properties continues to increase, which may limit the rebound space for second-hand property prices. It is expected that the overall increase in Hong Kong property prices in 2025 will be below 5%