Advance opening of Double 11 leads to a decline in consumption in November, U.S. consumption is overestimated by the market, and the upward space for the dollar is limited --- 1218 Macro Dehydration

In November, China's retail sales (excluding automobile sales) increased by 2.5% year-on-year, reaching 3.9 trillion yuan. Among them, China's e-commerce sales (excluding virtual goods and service sales) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, reaching 1.5 trillion yuan, while in October, it increased by 11.3%. The decline in e-commerce sales in November may be due to major e-commerce platforms starting this year's Double 11 promotional activities early (in mid-October).

In November, the performance of core retail and retail data in the United States was mixed, with strong retail data mainly driven by automobile consumption. In the context of weakening core retail data, the market overestimated the risk of rising inflation in the U.S., and the pace of future interest rate cuts is expected to be faster than the market anticipates.

The Trump 2.0 cycle may begin with a strong dollar and end with rebalancing. In the short term, the dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the range of 100-105 by 2025, showing a "rise first, then fall" trend in the medium term. The growth of the U.S. economy attracts global capital inflows, driving the appreciation of the dollar, but the long-term dual deficit pattern accumulates risks. A strong dollar puts pressure on manufacturing competitiveness, ultimately forcing policy rebalancing, leading to a transition of the dollar from strong to weak