The actual GDP of the United States for the third quarter was significantly revised upward, growing by 3.1%, exceeding expectations

Zhitong
2024.12.20 02:02
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The actual GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth in the United States for the third quarter was 3.1%, higher than the expected 2.8%. Strong growth in consumer spending and exports drove this result. Despite high interest rates, the growth rate of consumer spending was 3.7%, the fastest since the first quarter of 2023. Exports grew by 9.6%, and business investment increased by 0.8%. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times in 2022 and 2023, with the inflation rate dropping to 2.7%. Trump promised to implement economic policy reforms, which has raised concerns among economists

The Zhitong Finance APP noted that data released by the U.S. government showed that driven by strong consumer spending and increased exports, the annualized quarter-on-quarter final value of the U.S. real GDP for the third quarter grew by 3.1%, higher than the expected 2.8% and the previous value of 2.8%.

The U.S. Department of Commerce stated on Thursday that the GDP growth rate for the third quarter accelerated from 3% in the April to July period, despite high interest rates, the growth rate remains strong. In the past nine quarters, the GDP growth rate exceeded 2% in eight of them.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew by 3.7%, the fastest since the first quarter of 2023, and higher than the Commerce Department's previous estimate of 3.5%.

Exports grew by 9.6%. Business investment only increased by 0.8%, but equipment investment grew by 10.8%. Federal government spending and investment increased by 8.9%, with defense spending rising by 13.9%.

U.S. voters are indifferent to the steady economic growth under Democratic President Joe Biden. With prices still 20% higher than at the start of inflation in early 2021, they chose to bring Trump back to the White House last month, allowing the Republican Party to hold a majority in both the House and Senate.

Trump will take over an overall seemingly healthy economy. Although the unemployment rate has risen from a 53-year low of 3.4% in April 2023, it remains low at 4.2%. In mid-2002, the inflation rate reached a 40-year high of 9.1%. The Federal Reserve's 11 interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 helped bring inflation down to 2.7% last month. This is above the Fed's 2% target. However, the Fed remains satisfied with the progress in combating inflation and lowered the benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, marking the third reduction this year.

President-elect Trump has promised a comprehensive reform of economic policies, including tax cuts, imposing high tariffs on foreign goods, and deporting millions of immigrants working illegally in the U.S. Many economists are concerned that these policies will drive up inflation.

"This week's data shows that the U.S. economy will end 2024 on a solid note, which is fortunate, as by 2025 we will have to deal with increased policy uncertainty and potentially greater challenges," wrote Oren Klachkin, an economist at Allstate Insurance.

In the GDP data, one category that measures the potential strength of the economy had an annualized growth rate of 3.4% from July to September, higher than previous estimates and above the 2.7% for the April to June quarter. This category includes consumer spending and private investment but excludes volatile items such as exports, inventories, and government spending.

The latest data also contains some encouraging news about inflation. The inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, had an annualized increase of only 1.5% last quarter, down from 2.5% in the second quarter. Excluding the volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core PCE inflation rate was 2.2%, slightly higher than previous expectations but lower than the 2.8% for the April to June quarter.

Thursday's report is the third and final release of the third quarter GDP by the U.S. Department of Commerce. It will release the preliminary estimate of economic growth for the October to December period on January 30