The worst-performing major currencies of the year are out, and the key to maintaining the exchange rate lies in
The Brazilian real is set to be the worst-performing currency among major global economies in 2024, depreciating over 20% against the US dollar. While the strengthening of the dollar is an external factor, Brazil's inflation, declining foreign exchange reserves, and the gap in monetary policy compared to the Federal Reserve are not the main reasons
Brazil has a population of 213 million, ranking first in Latin America and seventh in the world; it is the fifth largest country by area, only behind Russia, Canada, the People's Republic of China, and the United States; its GDP exceeds 2 trillion USD, making it the largest economy in South America and the eighth largest economy in the world, truly deserving of being a global power.
However, in 2024, Brazil's currency, the real, has become the worst currency among global powers: its exchange rate against the US dollar has depreciated by more than 20%.
Figure: The trend of the Brazilian real against the US dollar
The strengthening of the US dollar is just an external reason, but a depreciation of over 20% in a year is compounded by many internal factors.
Is it because Brazil's inflation is out of control?
Is it because Brazil's foreign exchange reserves are nearly depleted?
Is it because Brazil's monetary policy is too different from the Federal Reserve's?
None of these; the reason Brazil cannot maintain its exchange rate is because