This week's important agenda: The closing of the 13th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress, Christmas market closure in Europe and the United States

A summary of major financial events from December 23 to December 29, all in Beijing time:

Key focus for next week: The closing of the 13th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress, and the closure of European and American markets for the Christmas holiday. China will announce the year-on-year profits of industrial enterprises above designated size for November, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, will give a speech, and the United States will release the preliminary month-on-month durable goods orders for November.

Closing of the 13th Meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress

According to news from the National People's Congress website on December 19, the Legislative Work Committee of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress held a press conference on December 19. The spokesperson introduced that the 13th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress will be held in Beijing from December 21 to 25.

The meeting will review the draft amendments to the Representative Law, the draft Value-Added Tax Law, the draft amendments to the Supervision Law, the draft revisions to the Science and Technology Popularization Law, and the draft National Park Law; review the proposal from the Supervision and Judicial Committee of the National People's Congress regarding the draft Law on the Promotion of Rule of Law Education; review the proposal from the State Council regarding the draft Law on the Promotion of the Private Economy, the draft amendments to the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, the draft amendments to the Fisheries Law, and the draft Law on the Safety of Hazardous Chemicals; review the proposal from the Chairman's Meeting regarding the draft decision on convening the third meeting of the 14th National People's Congress; and review the report on the 2024 filing and review work from the Legislative Work Committee of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress.

Christmas Market Closure in Europe and America

Due to the Christmas holiday, on Tuesday, the U.S. financial markets and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will close half a day early, while European financial markets will be closed for one day; on Wednesday, the U.S., Hong Kong, and European exchanges will be closed; on Thursday, the Hong Kong and European exchanges will be closed.

China Announces Year-on-Year Profits of Industrial Enterprises Above Designated Size for November

On Friday, China will announce the year-on-year profits of industrial enterprises above designated size for November.

With the implementation of existing policies and a package of new policies, the production of industrial enterprises above designated size stabilized and grew in October, and the decline in profits for the month significantly narrowed. Profits for different types of enterprises have all rebounded, with profits in the equipment manufacturing sector turning from decline to growth, and improvements in the profits of raw material manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing sectors.

Data shows that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in October decreased by 10.0% year-on-year, a significant narrowing of the decline by 17.1 percentage points compared to September. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide was 58,680.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, which is greater than the 3.5% decline from January to September.

Yu Weining, a statistician from the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted:

The decline in operating income and profits of industrial enterprises narrowed in the month. From January to October, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 1.9% year-on-year, continuing the growth trend, while profits decreased by 4.3% year-on-year.

Looking at the month, in October, driven by stable growth in industrial production and improved levels of production and sales connection, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, a narrowing of the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. The recovery in revenue has improved enterprise profits, with profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in October decreasing by 10.0% year-on-year, a significant narrowing of the decline by 17.1 percentage points compared to September

Ueda Kazuhiro delivers a speech! Will it signal an interest rate hike?

On Wednesday, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuhiro delivered a speech. On Friday, the Bank of Japan released a summary of the opinions from the December monetary policy meeting.

On Thursday morning, December 19, the Bank of Japan announced that it would maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged with a vote of 8-1, and the market will focus on the bank's statements regarding the future interest rate hike path. At a press conference held that afternoon, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuhiro stated that the Japanese economy is experiencing a moderate recovery, and prices are expected to gradually rise, but there remains a high level of uncertainty regarding the economy and inflation.

Regarding the subsequent policy path, in addition to the usual economic and inflation data, Ueda Kazuhiro indicated that he would assess the trends of next year's "Shunto" and the impact of Trump’s policies on inflation.

Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Markets, believes that Ueda Kazuhiro's statements maintain "maximum flexibility" for the January decision, which is not entirely surprising:

“However, it is surprising that he even sounds less certain about the continued rise in wages. This seems to dampen expectations for a rate hike in January.”

Forex strategists had previously warned that if the Bank of Japan decides to raise interest rates by March or later, the yen will face further risks of depreciation.

U.S. releases preliminary durable goods orders for November

On Tuesday, the U.S. released preliminary durable goods orders for November.

Data from last month showed that after two months of decline, U.S. durable goods orders experienced a month-on-month increase, with the preliminary value for October at 0.2%, expected at 0.5%, and the previous value for September at -0.7%. U.S. durable goods orders increased by $700 million in October, reaching $286.6 billion.

Due to an overall stagnation, this slight increase in October durable goods orders pushed the year-on-year growth rate to 5.3%, the highest level since November 2023.

Analysts stated that overall, the latest report on durable goods orders is mixed, with almost no evidence indicating a rebound in U.S. manufacturing, and the industrial aspect of the economy is still struggling.

Other important data, meetings, and events

• On Tuesday, the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of their December monetary policy meetings.
• On Thursday, the U.S. will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 21.
• On Friday, Japan will release the year-on-year Tokyo CPI for December and the unemployment rate for November.
• On Friday, the Constitutional Court of Korea will hold its first hearing on the impeachment case against Yoon Suk-yeol.

IPO Opportunities

In the week (December 23-27), there is 1 new stock available for subscription in the A-share market, with 0 new stocks listed.

A total of 18 new funds (combined statistics for Class A and Class C) were issued during the week, including 4 index funds, 4 mixed funds, and 2 FOFs