Is January 17 the peak of this round of Bitcoin market?

Is Bitcoin about to reach the peak of this cycle?

On December 24, MarketWatch reported that Bitcoin has been volatile since it broke the $100,000 mark earlier this month. However, analysts at crypto research firm K33 suggest that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could reach a new high by mid-January 2025, followed by a peak.

Yesterday, Bitcoin rose by 6.1%, currently priced at $98,048 per coin. On December 17, Bitcoin set a historical high of $108,309 per coin but fell after the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish stance last week.

Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, stated that based on historical data, the average duration from Bitcoin's first historical peak to its last historical peak is 318 days. Since the first historical high of this cycle occurred on March 5, Bitcoin may reach a new peak on January 17, 2025.

Generally, cryptocurrency analysts divide Bitcoin's price performance into a four-year cycle—each cycle includes four stages: breakout, hype, correction, and accumulation. The four-year cycle is primarily based on Bitcoin's halving schedule, which controls the supply of Bitcoin through halving mechanisms that occur approximately every four years, with the most recent halving occurring this April.

If Bitcoin does reach its cycle peak in mid-January, it will be close to Trump's presidential inauguration on January 20. Lunde believes that after Trump takes office, the momentum related to the Trump trade will come to an end, with Bitcoin being one of them:

"Trump's election was a catalyst for Bitcoin's strong rebound in the fourth quarter, and the inauguration may mark a natural end to this momentum, as implementing Trump's policy promises requires political processes."

Lunde stated that based on the peak prices of Bitcoin in previous cycles, the peak of this cycle could reach $146,000 per coin; if referencing past market capitalizations, the highest price in this cycle could reach $212,500 per coin.

However, it is important to note that Bitcoin was launched in 2009, and its time as an asset is still relatively short. Additionally, due to the small sample size, Bitcoin's historical price data may not be sufficiently representative, and past performance does not necessarily predict future performance.

Lunde pointed out that, in fact, as the halving effect diminishes, the cyclical effect of Bitcoin has also become less pronounced.

Currently, as the year-end approaches, enthusiasm in the cryptocurrency market seems to be cooling. As of Monday, Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows for three consecutive days.

Moreover, although MSTR announced on Monday that it had purchased 5,262 Bitcoins at approximately $106,662 per coin, analysts at crypto trading firm QCP Capital noted: "This is MSTR's smallest purchase amount in recent times, raising questions about whether MSTR's buying interest has weakened at this price level." ”