Galaxy/Lynk & Co/ZEEKR strikes, Xiaomi follows: Is the biggest competitor of Li Auto/Aito here?

Wallstreetcn
2024.12.26 00:43
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In addition to the Galaxy L9, Lynk & Co L946, and ZEEKR EX1E, the "large SUV" that has been officially announced or rumored to debut in 2025 also includes Denza N9, Haobo HL, Leapmotor C19, XPeng extended-range SUV, etc. Moreover, on December 25th, Xiaomi's first extended-range large SUV was also exposed

On December 23, the second pure electric vehicle under the Lynk & Co brand, the Lynk & Co Z20, was officially launched.

With a starting price of 135,900 yuan, it gained a certain level of internet attention, but ultimately more consumers shifted their focus to the "One More Thing" announced by An Conghui at the end of the press conference.

An Conghui stated that Lynk & Co will unveil a "large SUV" in early next year, with two key points: it is built on a dedicated architecture for large vehicles and is a high-end plug-in hybrid SUV.

In fact, this is the third officially announced "large SUV" under the Geely brand system in recent times.

In August this year, An Conghui first revealed at the Geely Auto 2024 mid-term performance press conference that a "large SUV" would be launched under the ZEEKR brand in the third quarter of 2025; on December 12, the head of Geely's public relations department revealed on Weibo that Geely Galaxy would launch a "full-size SUV" in the second half of 2025.

Adding Lynk & Co to the mix, it can be predicted that Geely Group's strategy in 2025 will revolve around these three "large SUVs."

Needless to say, the three "large SUVs" that Geely Group is about to release will all consider Aito and Li Auto's products as their hypothetical competitors.

What product advantages do Geely's "large SUV trio" have compared to Aito M7/M9 and Li Auto L8/L9, and can they change the current market landscape? This will surely be a major focal point in the 2025 market.

However, before becoming challengers, it is also very important whether these three "large SUVs" from Geely are strong enough themselves.

01 The Three Horsemen

The three large SUVs from Galaxy, Lynk & Co, and ZEEKR are still in the early exposure stage, with only some clues available online. Relatively speaking, the Lynk & Co large SUV has the most known information, and spy photos of road test models have been leaked; some key capabilities of the ZEEKR large SUV have also been disclosed.

As for the Galaxy brand's large SUV, we can find some reference information from the "Galaxy Starship Concept Car" showcased at the Beijing Auto Show.

Galaxy L9: Prototype Car Comes to Reality

The "Galaxy Starship SUV Prototype" unveiled during this year's Beijing Auto Show has already reached a high level of completion in its interior and exterior design. If all goes well, the production model of the Galaxy "full-size SUV" in 2025 will closely resemble the prototype.

The mass-produced model based on the Galaxy Starship prototype is likely to be named "Galaxy L9." The design of the "Galaxy Starship Prototype" retains the family characteristics of the current Galaxy series, such as the through-type front and rear light groups and the fully enclosed front face. However, the larger size of the light groups and more complex design details reflect the vehicle's positioning as a "flagship."

From the body contour, the "Galaxy Starship Prototype" adopts a rounded, streamlined style, reminiscent of the Maybach SUV rather than luxury models like the "Range Rover."

As for other design features, the "Galaxy Starship Prototype" uses a "dual-opening door + wing door" combination, and it is currently unclear whether this design will be retained in the production model.

In terms of capabilities, Geely claims that the "Galaxy Starship Prototype" is built on the new "GEA" architecture, which is described as an "AI intelligent architecture."

According to Geely, the cockpit of the Galaxy Starship Prototype has strong voice interaction capabilities, allowing adjustments to the seats based on voice commands. In terms of overall vehicle intelligence, thanks to the digital chassis, the response speed of the Galaxy Starship Prototype's chassis is 4 milliseconds and it has capabilities such as "automatic hazard avoidance."

It sounds like the chassis intelligence of the Geely Galaxy Starship is already on par with the recently launched Nio ET9, but how the final functionality will be realized remains to be seen.

What is more practical and to be expected is the power system. The Geely Galaxy Starship Prototype will be equipped with the new generation "Thor Power Hybrid," which, with an engine efficiency of 46% and an 11-in-1 electric drive system, can achieve a comprehensive range of up to 2000 kilometers.

From the above information, we can roughly piece together the product characteristics of the "Galaxy L9": the design and dimensions can be directly referenced from the "Starship Prototype," but the cockpit functions will be more "down-to-earth," with a sense of technology but not "sci-fi"; it will be equipped with a certain degree of intelligent chassis technology, but it is unlikely to use high-end capabilities such as "steer-by-wire"; finally, the comprehensive range is close to 2000 kilometers.

It can be seen that the biggest selling point of the Galaxy L9 is its "affordable and generous" configuration.

Lynk & Co L946: "Hangzhou Bay Range Rover"

The large SUV from Lynk & Co has finally been officially announced, and the credible information is actually the most abundant.

First, let's look at the official information. The silhouette image released at the "Co-Driver" event shows the side contour and part of the light group design of the Lynk & Co large SUV. Its body contour is long but straight, and as netizens commented, it can be called "Hangzhou Bay Range Rover." At the same time, the design of its front light group is more similar to ZEEKR 009 rather than Lynk & Co 08, while the tail light design has a flavor of Lynk & Co Z10

In addition, some small designs can be vaguely seen on the front door panel, possibly for cameras, somewhat similar to Lynk & Co 08.

It is reported that the development code for Lynk & Co's "large SUV" is "L946", which has already begun road testing earlier.

Although it is covered in thick camouflage, its square body outline, frameless rearview mirrors, turret-style lidar, and strip-style wheel design can be observed.

More spy photos show that the L946 is a "three-row SUV" and may offer 6-seat or 7-seat versions in the future.

The Lynk & Co "L946" is fundamentally different from Lynk & Co 09 EM-P and Lynk & Co 08 due to its "new architecture" — built on the SPA Evo architecture, while Lynk & Co 09 is based on SPA and Lynk & Co 08 is based on CMA.

The advancement of the SPA Evo architecture is first reflected in its size; this architecture is an upgrade from SPA, allowing the overall wheelbase to exceed 3000mm compared to the CMA architecture, providing a foundation for creating larger models.

Additionally, one of the features of the SPA Evo architecture is the shortening of "L113," which is the distance from the center point of the front wheels to the contact point of the foot and brake pedal, maximizing usable space in the passenger cabin; furthermore, compared to the SPA platform, the SPA Evo platform allows for larger capacity battery packs.

Rumors suggest that the Lynk & Co L946 will be equipped with a hybrid powertrain based on a 2.0T engine, with the battery pack possibly reaching 50kWh; the rear axle will be equipped with dual wheel-side motors, ultimately forming a "three-motor" power system that supports rear-wheel steering and may also be equipped with air springs.

ZEEKR EX1E: Dual Power Flagship

Finally, looking at ZEEKR, there are currently no reference models for ZEEKR's "large SUV," and there are no road-tested prototypes, existing only in An Conghui's brief mentions.

Currently known information includes three points: it will adopt pure electric/hybrid dual power, is expected to be one of the first models equipped with the Thor chip, will debut in the third quarter of next year, and will be launched in the fourth quarter.

According to previous disclosures, ZEEKR's "large SUV" development codes are "EX1E" for the pure electric version and "EX1H" for the hybrid version At the end of October, media produced a conceptual image of the EX1E, which features a large SUV design that is highly similar to the ZEEKR 7X. The "Time-Space Gate" multimedia light strip located above the headlight group has become standard; the vehicle's outline is rounded and gentle, with a straight rear hatch.

At the same time, based on Geely's patents, it is predicted that the EX1E's trunk may have a "Heaven and Earth Door" design similar to that of the Rolls-Royce Cullinan. Regarding chassis capabilities, the ZEEKR EX1E may be equipped with "active suspension" technology and support rear-wheel steering.

There is little information about the powertrain of the ZEEKR EX1E/H. The official description of its plug-in hybrid version's "super electric hybrid" technology is "combining the advantages of pure electric, range extension, and plug-in hybrid." The specific working modes and achievable mileage are worth looking forward to.

Overall, these three "large SUVs" from Geely Group each have their own characteristics, and as "flagship products" of their respective brands, they all hope to focus on design and material quality.

However, the "Taizhou Declaration" emphasizes the integration of internal resources within Geely Group and the avoidance of unnecessary repetitive competition. Under this guiding spirit, how to reflect differentiated positioning among the three "flagship products" becomes a key factor.

02 Tianji Horse Racing

There are basic tonal distinctions among the three brands: Galaxy, Lynk & Co, and ZEEKR.

Galaxy targets the entry-level family market, Lynk & Co focuses on "high-end new energy," aimed at the mid-to-high-end market; ZEEKR emphasizes "technological luxury."

As for vehicle types and power forms, there are no strict distinctions among the three brands, so Galaxy and Lynk & Co will also have large vehicles. However, differences in configuration materials, interior and exterior designs, and other details will reflect the distinctions between the brands.

For example, regarding chassis configuration, it can be basically confirmed that the Lynk & Co L946 will be equipped with high-end features such as air suspension and rear-wheel steering, while the ZEEKR EX1E may have the opportunity to be equipped with active suspension for better passability and higher chassis comfort.

As for the large SUV of the Galaxy brand, the specific capabilities of the "smart chassis" on the prototype remain unknown. Considering its product positioning, it may only be equipped with basic "road preview" functions, utilizing air suspension or CDC adjustable damping shock absorbers to achieve this For intelligent driving capabilities, the ZEEKR EX1E, which is expected to debut with the Thor chip, will undoubtedly have the best computing power foundation, enabling more advanced intelligent driving functions. At the Guangzhou Auto Show, ZEEKR announced that it will push "parking space to parking space" intelligent driving in the second quarter of next year, and the ZEEKR EX1E is highly likely to become one of the first models within Geely Group to support "parking space to parking space."

As for Lynk & Co and Galaxy's large SUVs, they will likely still use the Orin chip solution or even the Yika Tong chip solution, resulting in slightly inferior intelligent driving capabilities.

Finally, regarding power performance, Galaxy's "Thunder God Electric Hybrid" will focus on "economical and practical," while Lynk & Co's EM-P solution will emphasize "sportiness."

As for ZEEKR's "Super Electric Hybrid," there is currently limited information available, but being positioned as a flagship product, it is believed to potentially balance "endurance" and "performance."

Looking at it this way, in the context of "large SUVs," Geely Group has delivered three distinct answers through three different brands and various technical solutions.

Among them, the Galaxy brand's large SUV (Galaxy L9) can be seen as a "price alternative," with an expected price of 300,000 yuan, which may provide 90% of the basic experience of the Aito M9 and Li Auto L9, and it is not out of the question to challenge the Aito M7 and Li Auto L8; Lynk & Co's L946, with an expected price of 400,000 yuan, offers a certain level of technological and sporty performance competitiveness, serving as a differentiated option compared to the Aito M9 and Li Auto L9.

As for the ZEEKR EX1E, it is expected to be priced at 500,000 yuan, aiming to provide a technological and luxurious experience that surpasses the Aito M9 and Li Auto L9.

Clearly, this is a strategy utilizing the "Tian Ji's horse racing" approach, targeting the currently hottest large SUVs. Looking at the entire automotive industry, there are more companies eyeing the Aito M9 and Li Auto L9, and the main theme of 2025 will be a strategic encirclement targeting the "large SUV sales champion."

03 The Encirclement Momentum

Currently, the officially announced or rumored "large SUVs" set to debut in 2025 also include the Denza N9, Haobo HL, Leapmotor C19, XPeng extended-range SUV, etc. Moreover, on December 25, Xiaomi's first extended-range large SUV was also exposed.

From the images circulating online, Xiaomi's extended-range large SUV has considerable dimensions, although the design is relatively boxy, possibly indicating a different design language.

Focusing on "range-extended (plug-in hybrid) power" and "high-level intelligent driving" tracks, these models aim to challenge Aito and Li Auto.

There are two reasons why Chinese car companies are collectively focusing on "large SUVs." First, this segment still has market space, and car companies hope to capture more market share from "BBA." Second, they have seen the potential for success from Aito and Li Auto's related models.

Hot Commodity

Specifically, several products that fall under the "large SUV" category, such as Aito M7, M9, and Li Auto L8 and L9, have achieved impressive sales results.

The average sales of the new Aito M7 in the first 11 months of 2024 were 16,000 units, with January being the peak month, approaching 30,000 units in a single month; even in the relatively poor-performing month of April, it still sold 9,000 units; approximately 180,000 units have been sold this year.

After ramping up production in March, Aito M9's sales have stabilized above the "10,000" mark, currently averaging 13,000 units per month, with 16,409 units sold in November, and total sales of approximately 140,000 units in the first 11 months of 2024.

On Li Auto's side, according to "Car Owner Home" statistics, the average monthly sales of Li Auto L8 are 6,270 units, with a total of 68,976 units sold in the first 11 months of this year; the average monthly sales of Li Auto L9 are 6,489 units, with total sales of 71,847 units.

It can be seen that in terms of sales, these domestic models are competitive with the Mercedes-Benz GLC (137,000 units sold in the first 11 months) and Audi Q5L (131,000 units sold in the first 11 months), indicating that Chinese automotive brands can find a new path outside the "low-price quagmire."

However, "large SUVs," including the "Geely Three Swordsmen," face significant challenges in competing with the well-recognized Aito family and Li Auto family.

Three Challenges

The "decisive points" mainly lie in three areas.

First, their power systems need to have certain advantages compared to the already market-recognized Aito M7/M9 and Li Auto L8/L9.

Whether emphasizing longer range, higher fuel economy, or competing in pure electric range, in short, the "challengers" need to demonstrate their advantages in powertrains.

Currently, "longer comprehensive range" and "longer pure electric range" may be one of the mainstream directions. For example, Lynk & Co L946 is equipped with a 50kWh large battery, and Haobo HL also claims its pure electric range exceeds 300km. After alleviating "range anxiety," Chinese car companies are racing to ensure that large SUVs can also provide the experience advantages of electric vehicles Second, in terms of "intelligence," challengers need to have their own "representative works."

"Huawei ADS Smart Driving" and "Huawei Harmony Cabin" are among the most distinctive labels on the Aito M7/M9, while "Li Auto Classmate" and "end-to-end smart driving" have become powerful tools for Li Auto L8/L9 to gain user reputation... "Intelligence" is the main means for domestic large SUVs to challenge traditional luxury brands. Similarly, "intelligence benchmarking Aito and Li Auto," other domestic brands' large SUVs cannot escape this fate.

Aito's intelligence is strong in high technical level, while Li Auto's intelligence excels in good human-machine interaction... Especially for Geely Group, the intelligent driving and intelligent cabin performance of their models cannot yet be said to have "proven themselves." When challenging Aito and Li Auto, they are likely to face considerable pressure.

Third, these "challengers" need to demonstrate their unique insights into user needs.

The "color TV refrigerator big sofa" on Li Auto L8/L9 is widely known, while Aito M9 brings users an alternative experience through features like "queen seat" and "giant screen projection."

These product points have been market-validated and have become product memory points. As benchmark models, including Geely's "three swordsmen," large SUVs also need to create similar features to enhance product characteristics.

Considering the above three points, including Geely Group's "large SUVs," it is not easy for a number of challengers to seize the market from Aito and Li Auto. They have the first-mover advantage, gaining consumer trust, as well as product advantages, becoming benchmarks...

Alternatively, the more likely scenario is that more domestic large SUVs flood the market, thereby taking away market share originally belonging to traditional luxury brands. Regardless of the final outcome, a major battle in the high-end large SUV market in 2025 is inevitable.

Source: Electric Planet, original title: "Galaxy/Lynk & Co/ZEEKR strikes, Xiaomi follows: Are Li Auto/Aito's biggest rivals coming?"