Canalys: In the third quarter, PC shipments in the United States increased by 7% year-on-year, reaching 17.9 million units

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Canalys data shows that in the third quarter of 2024, PC (excluding tablets) shipments in the United States increased by 7% year-on-year, reaching 17.9 million units. Among them, laptops are the main driving force, with shipments increasing by 9% year-on-year. Looking ahead, due to the weakening momentum of the Windows upgrade cycle and adverse effects from macroeconomic policies, the recovery of the U.S. PC market is expected to continue, but at a slower pace than previously anticipated. Total PC shipments in the U.S. are expected to grow by 6% in 2024, reaching nearly 70 million units, followed by a slowdown in growth to 2% in 2025 and 2026.

In the second half of 2024, commercial demand remains strong, with commercial market shipments growing by 12% in the third quarter. The upgrade to Windows 11 is still ongoing, and the performance of the commercial market is expected to remain strong, at least until early 2025.

Canalys analyst Greg Davis stated: "While previous growth was mainly driven by the consumer market, the commercial market has become the dominant area of the U.S. PC market. As we enter the second half of the year, both large enterprises and small businesses are significantly increasing their PC refresh efforts for Windows 11 devices. In the consumer sector, seasonal promotional activities around Black Friday and Cyber Monday will help drive shipment growth in the fourth quarter."

Although Microsoft and its partners will work throughout 2025 to raise user awareness of the end of Windows 10 services, Canalys expects a significant portion of device upgrades to occur after the service termination date. This is due to the relatively slow current transition speed, especially with only 10 months remaining until the October 2025 deadline, as many existing users are still using Windows 10.

Expectations for the PC market in 2025 and beyond have also been downgraded due to potential policy changes that the new government may implement.

Canalys analyst Greg Davis stated: "With the 2024 U.S. presidential election settled, macroeconomic conditions in the U.S. are not expected to be as stable in the short term as they have been in the past year or two. Reports indicate that import tariffs may soon be implemented, which will have a significant impact on the PC market." Research from the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) suggests that the proposed tariffs could increase device prices by up to 46%, which would pose downside risks to market forecasts. Supply chain signals indicate that there may be inventory hoarding at the beginning of 2025 in response to expected price increases, leading to seasonal adjustments in shipments next year.

Davis further pointed out: "In the long term, budget cuts in government departments are a potential risk, especially for PC procurement in the federal government and education sectors. Although the budget for 2025 is unlikely to be significantly affected, we expect these areas to see a decline in technology spending in the future."