Deutsche Bank predicts fourth-quarter deliveries will be below expectations, but do the fervent Tesla fans still care?

There is a significant divergence among analysts regarding Tesla's future trends. Deutsche Bank predicts that Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries will be below expectations, while Tesla's "die-hard fans" at Wedbush remain firmly bullish.

Recently, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives raised Tesla's target stock price from $400 to $515 and reiterated an "outperform" rating. Ives told clients that Tesla's market value could surpass $2 trillion by the end of 2025.

Ives stated that policy changes during Trump's second term will bring a complete game-changer, as Tesla's autonomous driving and artificial intelligence business is expected to experience explosive growth in a more favorable operating environment:

"We are raising Tesla's target stock price from $400 to $515 because we believe that the Trump administration over the next four years will be a 'game changer' for Tesla and Musk in the fields of autonomous driving and artificial intelligence. Our bullish expectation is that Tesla's stock price will reach $650 by 2025."

However, Deutsche Bank analysts Edison Yu and Winnie Dong indicated that the fourth quarter "is Tesla's biggest delivery quarter," but "so far, we believe the delivery volume is slightly below" the 515,000 units needed to achieve the annual growth target—whether Tesla can reach this target in the fourth quarter and achieve annual growth remains in question.

The report stated:

"Tesla's delivery volume may be slightly below expectations. Tesla needs to deliver at least 515,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter to achieve a slight increase in annual delivery volume. Based on data available so far, the actual delivery volume is close to 500,000, while DBe/Street's expectation is 510,000-511,000."

Yu and Dong added:

"The main source of Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries will come from China, expected to be close to 210,000 units, benefiting from zero-interest financing incentives and cash discounts on the Model Y. North America should be around 150,000 units, and Europe 84,000 units.

In October and November, retail sales in China were 40,500 and 73,500 units, respectively, with monthly sales exceeding 40,000 units as of December 15. According to our tracking data by model, Model 3 accounted for 153,000 units, Model Y for 322,000 units, Model S+X for 11,000 units, and Cybertruck for about 14,000 units."

In the previous third quarter, Tesla reported 462,890 deliveries and 469,796 production, slightly below FactSet StreetAccount's expectations.

Looking ahead to the new year, analysts believe that the price war for electric vehicles between Tesla and startups as well as traditional brands is expected to intensify, as President Trump plans to eliminate the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit. Of course, Musk praised Trump's decision, as it could potentially bankrupt Tesla's competitors