The number of initial jobless claims in the United States has fallen to the lowest level in a month, indicating continued resilience in the labor market

According to Zhitong Finance APP, as of last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to the lowest level in a month, which aligns with the market expectation that the U.S. labor market remains resilient despite occasional signs of slight cooling in the non-farm employment data. The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that for the week ending December 21, the number of initial jobless claims decreased by about 1,000 from the previous reporting week, seasonally adjusted to 219,000, better than the economists' consensus expectation of 224,000.

The latest statistics on continuing jobless claims reached the highest level in over three years, indicating that it takes longer for unemployed individuals to find jobs. The continuous decline in initial jobless claims suggests that companies are still very reluctant to lay off employees, with many preferring to raise salaries to retain high-quality staff. These two latest data points outline a slightly cooling labor market, but there has yet to be a "labor fracture" that threatens the U.S. economy.

Data shows that for the week ending December 14, continuing jobless claims unexpectedly increased by 46,000, seasonally adjusted to approximately 1.91 million, reaching the highest level since November 2021, exceeding economists' general expectation of 1.88 million. This data aligns with other economic indicators showing that it is becoming increasingly difficult for unemployed individuals to find jobs compared to the high inflation period of the past two years.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated last week that the U.S. labor market remains "in good shape," but Fed policymakers are closely monitoring any signs of deterioration in the labor market. Powell mentioned at the press conference following the interest rate decision that the U.S. labor market is experiencing slight cooling, but it will not lead to concerns about a labor market collapse or economic recession.

A series of economic data this year, including strong consumer spending, persistent service inflation, overall stable unemployment rates, and continuously lower-than-expected initial jobless claims statistics, indicate a significant rise in U.S. inflation and a relatively healthy labor market.

Although the Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts as the market expected, the latest "dot plot" shows that the expectation for rate cuts in 2025 has been significantly reduced from four times announced at the end of the previous quarter to two times. Additionally, the 2026 interest rate expectations and the market-focused "neutral interest rate" expectations have been adjusted upward, forcing the market to reprice rate cut expectations. Some Federal Reserve officials have even begun to incorporate expectations of Trump's policies into their considerations, as indicated by the hawkish nature of the "dot plot" and the Fed's economic outlook showing PCE inflation significantly higher than last quarter's expectations. Furthermore, Federal Reserve officials expect that the economic stimulus measures introduced after Trump's inauguration will help stabilize the U.S. unemployment rate rather than trend downward as the market anticipates After the dot plot was released and Powell's press conference, swap contract pricing significantly reduced expectations for interest rate cuts next year, even beginning to price in no cuts at all. A recent forecast from Deutsche Bank indicates that the bank expects the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts for the entire year next year, and that the Fed's easing cycle is essentially stalled.

Bloomberg Economics economist Eliza Winger stated after the unemployment claims data was released on Thursday: "The overall number of initial unemployment claims this year is lower, reflecting a low rate of unemployment benefit receipt—some individuals are ineligible and unable to claim, while those who are eligible lack the motivation to apply for benefits, believing that finding a job remains relatively easy. The number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits is steadily increasing, with laid-off workers facing longer periods of unemployment, indicating a slight cooling in the labor market."