Is Xiaomi about to break new highs? It may become the first Chinese concept giant to reach a new high!

The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a long bear market. Although stocks like Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and NetEase have rebounded significantly, they are still far from their historical highs.

Since the release of the SU7, Xiaomi's stock price has continued to rise and is currently just a step away from its historical peak.

Recently, Xiaomi applied to register multiple trademarks including "XIAOMI YU7" and "XIAOMI YU," with international classifications covering transportation, storage, vehicles, scientific instruments, etc. The current status of these trademarks is pending substantive examination. As early as December 9, Xiaomi Auto's official Weibo account posted updates indicating that the second model of Xiaomi Auto will be an SUV named "Xiaomi YU7," expected to officially launch in June-July 2025.

Continuous Stock Price Increase

Since the beginning of this year, Xiaomi Group's stock price has been on the rise, repeatedly setting new stage highs.

As of December 27, during intraday trading, the stock price reached a high of HKD 34.95 before publication, currently reported at HKD 34.80, just a step away from the historical high of HKD 35.90. The trading activity is highly active in the Hong Kong stock market, attracting significant attention and favor from investors.

Company Strategy

Looking back at Xiaomi Group's strategic evolution, in 2019, it upgraded from the "triathlon" strategy of hardware, new retail, and internet to the "mobile + AIoT" dual-engine strategy, subsequently establishing a major appliance division; in the second quarter of 2020, the strategy evolved from "mobile + AIoT" to "mobile x AIoT," and in March 2021, it announced its car manufacturing plan.

At the end of 2022, the initial "scale first" operational strategy was transformed into "emphasis on both scale and profit": in October 2023, the strategy was upgraded to "full ecosystem of people, vehicles, and homes," with the white goods division becoming independent, and the Xiaomi SU7 officially unveiled. In 2024, three major factories will be completed, transitioning from a "light model, OEM model" to "independent manufacturing." (Note: Xiaomi has always valued manufacturing and established an intelligent manufacturing department early on to focus on automation and intelligent production).

On December 9, Xiaomi's official Weibo account released official images and the name of this pure electric SUV, YU 7, revealing that it will officially launch in June-July 2025. The dimensions of the Xiaomi VU 7 are 4999mm/1996mm/1600mm, with a wheelbase of 3000mm, positioning it as a mid-large SUV: larger than the current Model Y.

Revenue Situation of Three Major Businesses

Automobiles

Currently, the market demand for Xiaomi automobiles is high, with the delivery target for 2024 raised from 100,000 units to 130,000 units. In the first month of 2024, the first batch of Xiaomi SU7 deliveries began, with a delivery volume of 7,058 units in the first month. Subsequently, in June, it achieved the goal of over 10,000 units delivered in a single month, and in October, it first surpassed 20,000 units. Lei Jun then stated that it is expected to complete the annual delivery target of 100,000 units for the cumulative delivery of Xiaomi SU7 ahead of schedule in November, and strive to complete a delivery volume of 120,000 units by the end of the yearAccording to Xiaomi Group's Q3 2024 financial report, Xiaomi Auto has completed its goal of delivering 100,000 new cars ahead of schedule on January 18. With the order volume for the Xiaomi SU7 continuing to rise, Xiaomi Auto has once again raised its annual delivery target to 130,000 vehicles. The SU7 Ultra, expected to launch in March next year, and the YU 7, set to launch in June, are anticipated to drive accelerated revenue growth and improved gross margins.

Mobile Phones

In addition, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments continue to grow, with global shipments of smartphones reaching 43.1 million units in FY24Q3, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, maintaining its position as the third largest globally, with a market share of 13.8%. Revenue increased by 13.9% year-on-year, with high-end models accounting for 20.1% of shipments, up 7.9 percentage points year-on-year. Market shares in the 3-4k, 4-5k, and 5-6k price ranges increased by 9.3, 9.7, and 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, respectively. The launch of the Xiaomi 15 series is expected to accelerate the increase in market share for high-end models, with steady revenue growth anticipated.

IOT

In terms of IOT, shipments of refrigerators and washing machines reached new highs, benefiting from year-end shopping festivals and government consumption subsidies. Sales in the fourth quarter are expected to continue to rise. For smart wearables, global shipments of wearable products in FY2403 increased by over 50% year-on-year, with wearable wristbands ranking first alongside Apple.

In terms of revenue structure, the revenue share from the mobile phone business continues to decline. In the first three quarters of 2024, the smartphone business generated revenue of 140.4 billion yuan, with its revenue share dropping from 70% in 2017 to 55% in the first three quarters of 2024. Meanwhile, the IOT and lifestyle consumer goods business achieved revenue of 73.2 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, increasing its share from 21% in 2017 to 29%. Additionally, the new electric vehicle business contributed 16.1 billion yuan in revenue in the first three quarters of 2024.

R&D Investment

In the first three quarters of 2024, Xiaomi Group's R&D expenditure reached 16.6 billion yuan. As of September 30, 2024, the number of R&D personnel reached 20,436, accounting for 48.6% of the total workforce. Furthermore, Xiaomi Group plans to continue expanding its intellectual property capabilities, having obtained over 41,000 patents globally as of September 30, 2024.

Future Outlook

According to the mid-year report for 2024, Xiaomi Group is steadily advancing its new ten-year goals: making large-scale investments in core underlying technologies to become a new generation global leader in hardcore technology. In July 2024, Xiaomi Group officially launched its new generation Xiaomi smartphone smart factory, with a total investment of 2.4 billion yuan located in Changping District, Beijing, with an annual production capacity of 10 million flagship devices, achieving 100% automation in key processes through in-depth self-research of manufacturing equipmentAchieve 100% digitalization of industrial production by completing the construction of an industry-leading full-link industrial big data foundation. The Xiaomi smartphone intelligent industrial standard marks another step for Xiaomi on the path of hardcore technology.

Source: Cathay Securities, Tianfeng Securities, Internet