"The first humanoid robot stock" is being squeezed for excess water

Author | Huang Yu

Editor | Liu Baodan

A year ago, UBTECH ROBOTICS went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming China's "first humanoid robot stock," with its market value once soaring to over HKD 130 billion; however, since April this year, UBTECH ROBOTICS's stock price has entered a continuous "de-leveraging" phase.

On December 30, UBTECH ROBOTICS's stock price suffered another sharp decline, with a single-day drop of over 30%. On December 31, the stock price continued to fall by 12%. Over the two days, the cumulative drop exceeded 40%.

As of the close on December 31, UBTECH ROBOTICS's stock price was approximately HKD 54.95 per share, down over 83% from the historical high of HKD 328 nine months ago, with nearly HKD 100 billion evaporated, and the total market value shrinking to HKD 27 billion, hitting a new low since its listing.

On the news front, after one year of listing, UBTECH ROBOTICS's shares officially entered the lock-up period. Meanwhile, on December 29, UBTECH ROBOTICS announced that the concerted action agreements between Chairman, Executive Director, and CEO Zhou Jian and Zhao Guoqun, Xia Yongjun, Wang Lin, Xiong Youjun, Xia Zuo, and Shenzhen Intelligent Selection have also been terminated.

Against this backdrop, although UBTECH ROBOTICS simultaneously announced that Zhou Jian voluntarily promised to the company that he would not reduce his holdings of 70.4 million H shares in any way within 12 months starting from December 29, 2024, the termination of the concerted action agreement and the possibility of some shareholders reducing their holdings for cash still exert a certain downward pressure on the stock price.

UBTECH ROBOTICS responded externally, stating that the company respects shareholders' different plans for the disposal of Pre-IPO shares based on their long-term optimism about the company. The management team is confident in the company's business operations and the implementation of the humanoid robot industry and has issued a long-term lock-up announcement for shares.

In addition to the negative factor of the lock-up period, UBTECH ROBOTICS is also in a stock price correction phase, which is an important reason for the current sharp decline in its stock price.

Since last year, with the wave of AI large models, the humanoid robot industry, regarded as the best carrier for AI, has been "booming," with tech giants entering the field and rapid product iterations.

In this context, UBTECH ROBOTICS, which had planned to go public as early as 2019, restarted its listing plan and successfully went public at the end of last year, under the halo of being the "first humanoid robot stock."

UBTECH ROBOTICS was also favored by capital at the beginning of its listing, being included in the Hang Seng Composite Index and the Hong Kong Stock Connect list in less than three months, with its stock price once soaring to HKD 328 per share in March, up 264% from the issue price of HKD 90 per share, and its market value exceeding HKD 130 billion at one point.

However, since April, UBTECH ROBOTICS's stock price has entered a correction phase, showing an overall downward trend.

The roller coaster ride of UBTECH ROBOTICS's stock price is mainly due to its commercialization falling short of expectations.

UBTECH ROBOTICS is still in a loss phase. From the fiscal year 2020 to the fiscal year 2023, UBTECH ROBOTICS's losses during the period were RMB 707 million, RMB 918 million, RMB 987 million, and RMB 1.265 billion, respectively. In the first half of 2024, UBTECH ROBOTICS's revenue was RMB 487 million, a year-on-year increase of 86.6%, but it still incurred a loss of RMB 539 million during the period In addition, from the perspective of product revenue structure, the humanoid robots that have attracted significant market attention have not yet made a noticeable sales contribution to UBTECH ROBOTICS.

Currently, UBTECH ROBOTICS's business is mainly divided into four parts: educational intelligent robots and solutions, logistics intelligent robots and solutions, customized intelligent robots and solutions for other industries, and consumer-grade robots and other hardware devices. The revenue contribution from these segments in the first half of this year was 33.1%, 12.2%, 18.7%, and 35.8%, respectively.

In the annual report for the first half of this year, UBTECH ROBOTICS did not specifically disclose the sales situation of humanoid robots. However, the company's prospectus previously revealed that from 2021 to the first half of 2023, the sales of UBTECH ROBOTICS's humanoid robot Walker series were only 10 units, generating revenue of 59.8 million yuan.

Nevertheless, UBTECH ROBOTICS is actively exploring the commercialization of humanoid robots.

Recently, UBTECH ROBOTICS officially launched the new generation industrial humanoid robot Walker S1, which has now been deployed in BYD factories to perform handling task training, and closely collaborates with L4-level unmanned logistics vehicles, unmanned forklifts, industrial mobile robots, and intelligent manufacturing management systems, collectively forming the world's first industrial scenario solution that efficiently integrates humanoid robots with unmanned logistics vehicles.

Zhou Jian recently stated in a media interview that since the beginning of this year, UBTECH ROBOTICS has focused on key manufacturing sectors such as automotive and 3C, enhancing the operational and task execution capabilities of humanoid robots.

WanLian Securities pointed out that UBTECH ROBOTICS has rich practical experience with humanoid robots, and the current Walker S series has become the humanoid robot that has entered the most factories for training globally.

Additionally, Zhou Jian believes that in terms of the flexibility, responsiveness, and generalization of humanoid robots, the technology has already achieved many functions, and the production and manufacturing costs of hardware on the supply side are no longer constraints. Currently, advancements in software algorithms are the key to enhancing the autonomous capabilities of humanoid robots and expanding application scenarios.

To promote the commercialization of humanoid robots, in addition to solving technical issues, high costs are also the biggest challenge. Even so, in the face of the vast market scale for humanoid robots, more and more companies are entering this field.

Citibank's latest report predicts that by 2050, the global humanoid robot market size will reach $7 trillion, with the number of humanoid robots worldwide expected to reach 648 million units.

Huatai Securities pointed out that the market is concerned about the large number of robot participants, which may lead to homogeneous competition. "We believe that UBTECH ROBOTICS's core competitiveness lies in its accumulation of practical data and clear commercialization understanding, making it one of the few companies that connect the entire chain from technology to production to end scenarios. With large-scale product delivery, the company is expected to continue consolidating its competitive barriers."

With the support of capital and technology, the "dawn moment" of global humanoid robot industrialization seems to be getting closer. The year 2024 is expected to be an acceleration year for humanoid robot development, and 2025 is anticipated to enter the second phase, potentially growing into a trillion-dollar market in the future.

However, this is a track of fierce global capital competition, and whether UBTECH ROBOTICS can become one of the final winners remains uncertain