Tesla's Q4 record deliveries may still struggle to help achieve annual growth targets
Tesla is expected to release its fourth quarter and full-year delivery and production report on January 2. The market generally expects fourth quarter deliveries to exceed last year's historical high, with approximately 506,763 vehicles expected to be delivered. Despite improved demand, Tesla still needs to deliver at least 515,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter to meet its annual target, and analysts expect deliveries in 2024 to be lower than in 2023. Tesla's stock price fell by 3.25%, and analysts believe the delivery report will have little impact on the stock price
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Tesla (TSLA.US) is expected to release its fourth quarter and annual delivery and production report on January 2. The market generally expects that the fourth quarter delivery data will exceed the company's historical high of 484,507 vehicles in the same period last year.
Analysts estimate that Tesla will deliver approximately 506,763 vehicles in the fourth quarter. Among them, the delivery volume of Model 3/Model Y is 476,398 vehicles, while the delivery volume of all other models is 30,365 vehicles.
The improvement in demand in major markets (especially China) has contributed to Tesla's strong delivery channels. Tesla has also offered incentives in the U.S. and international markets, including zero-interest financing policies for purchasing the new Model 3 and Model Y.
However, to exceed the total delivery volume of over 1.8 million vehicles for the entire year of 2023, Tesla needs to deliver at least about 515,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the market expectation of 506,763 vehicles means that Tesla's global vehicle deliveries in 2024 will reach 1,801,709 vehicles, lower than the 1,808,581 vehicles in 2023, and the company's latest annual "slight growth" expectation will fall short.
Looking ahead, analysts remain confident about Tesla's delivery growth in 2025 and expect that the electric vehicle giant's deliveries this year will exceed 2 million vehicles, a figure that Musk initially set as a target for 2023. Tesla typically does not provide specific delivery guidance for the following year in its fourth quarter delivery report, but the earnings call later in January may include some forecasts.
As of Tuesday's close, Tesla's stock price fell by 3.25%, with a cumulative increase of over 62% for the entire year of 2024.
Limited Impact of Delivery Report
Although the final delivery numbers may be lower than last year, analysts believe that this report may have a limited impact on Tesla's stock price.
UBS stated in a report that it expects Tesla's fourth quarter delivery volume to be around 510,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10%.
UBS analysts pointed out, "Given the AI-driven stock narrative, we believe the delivery results will not be as meaningful as in the past." They emphasized that the impact of delivery data on Tesla's stock performance has weakened compared to earlier times.
Tesla's energy storage business is also worth noting, with UBS estimating that energy storage deployments will reach 9.1 GWh this quarter, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32%. The bank noted that this estimate is very close to the widely expected 9.6 GWh forecast. However, UBS warned that "energy storage deployments are unstable," making predictions less precise.
After the delivery report, the focus will shift to Tesla's earnings call at the end of JanuaryUBS emphasized that investors' attention may focus on Musk's comments, particularly regarding the guidance for 2025 and the development of artificial intelligence, rather than purely financial metrics.
By 2025, Tesla aims to achieve a sales growth of 20% to 30%, reaching 2.2 million to 2.4 million vehicles, surpassing UBS and the market's general forecasts of 1.9 million and 2 million vehicles.
The bank stated that new models, including the expected launch of a budget model and the new Model Y earlier this year, could drive the growth of these numbers.
UBS noted that trends vary by region: China is steadily growing driven by promotional activities, Europe is weak due to a slowdown in exports, while U.S. shipments are flat.
Barclays analysts expect Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries to reach 515,000 units, thereby driving annual deliveries to achieve year-on-year growth.
Although this potential milestone is noteworthy, Barclays pointed out that Tesla's delivery data may have little impact on the overall optimistic outlook for the stock. Instead, driven by market excitement over autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence, and post-election optimism, the bank emphasized that Tesla's fundamentals play a smaller role in its current stock price rise