"Trump 2.0" First Black Swan: Worst-case scenario impacts January 20 inauguration?

The election for the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives remains unresolved, creating uncertainty in the U.S. power transition.

On January 2, media reports indicated that if Republicans fail to elect a Speaker by January 5, the ensuing chaos could impact two key moments mandated by the Constitution: the certification of the 2024 election on January 6, and in the most extreme case, the inauguration of President Trump on January 20.

Trump has publicly endorsed the current Speaker Mike Johnson for re-election and privately expressed that he does not want Republicans to delay his priorities due to a prolonged Speaker battle. However, Johnson's right-wing faction is still considering opposing him, and the House is effectively at a standstill until a Speaker is elected.

In a presidential transition year, Congress typically adopts procedures on the first day to manage the January 6 joint session for certifying election results. These procedures are traditionally passed jointly by the House and Senate, binding both chambers under federal law governing the transfer of power.

If chaos arises at the start of the 2025 House session, it could threaten its ability to pass these procedures, thereby introducing more uncertainty into the election certification.

In the extreme case that the Speaker election is delayed until the inauguration, according to the Constitution, Biden's term ends at noon on January 20. If there is no certified successor, the duties will fall to the first person in the presidential succession order, expected to be 91-year-old Chuck Grassley, the most senior Republican senator from Iowa.

Variables on Trump's Inauguration Path

Although the Republican Party won the White House and control of the Senate in the 2024 election, it lost some seats in the House. Currently, Republicans hold a narrow lead in the House with 219-215, meaning that if just two Republican members vote against him, Johnson may not be able to secure the Speaker position.

At least one Republican member, Thomas Massie, has publicly stated he does not support Johnson. Other notable potential opponents include Andy Harris, chair of the Freedom Caucus, as well as conservative members Chip Roy and Eric Burlison.

According to media analysis, if Johnson cannot win the Speaker position, experts believe the least chaotic path for the House is to elect a temporary or "caretaker" Speaker.

This caretaker Speaker would be responsible for swearing in all newly elected House members, adopting the procedures for managing the 2024 election certification, and convening the House on January 6 to tally the electoral votes, ultimately confirming Trump's victory.

After the caretaker Speaker's duties conclude, they would facilitate the election of a permanent Speaker. The biggest question is whether Johnson himself would support this path.

The most extreme and chaotic outcome would be a prolonged battle over the Speaker election without a caretaker Speaker, extending into January and threatening the inauguration. Most experts expect the House to resolve the issue before then, but given the chaos in the House, no possibility can be ruled out Analysis points out that without a Speaker, this will be an unprecedented power struggle. According to the Constitution, Biden's term will end at noon on January 20, and if there is no certified successor taking office, the position will fall to the first person in the presidential line of succession. In the absence of a Speaker, this person will be the President pro tempore of the Senate, expected to be 91-year-old Republican Senator Chuck Grassley from Iowa.

If Johnson cannot successfully be re-elected, this will be another setback for Trump before his official inauguration. Previously, Trump's nominee for Attorney General, Matt Gaetz, withdrew due to opposition within the Republican Party, and some Senate Republicans have also expressed concerns about Trump's other cabinet nominees