In 2024, which assets will be the most profitable? Which will suffer the most losses?

In 2024, the global asset market is once again ushering in a bumper year. Economic growth remains robust, and although inflation is more stubborn than expected, central banks around the world have begun to actively cut interest rates, driving a general rise in risk assets.

Specifically, the highlights worth noting are as follows:

• The S&P 500 index achieved a total return of 25% for the year, marking the second consecutive year of over 20% annual returns.
• The "Seven Sisters" of U.S. tech stocks performed strongly, rising by 67%.
• Bitcoin's price doubled, breaking through the $100,000 mark.
• The U.S. dollar index rose by 7.1%, reaching its strongest annual closing level since 2001.

At the same time, not all assets achieved satisfactory returns. Global sovereign bonds performed relatively weakly, with the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rising for the fourth consecutive year, the first time since the 1980s. Factors such as geopolitical tensions and political instability in France also triggered turmoil in the bond market at times.

If categorized by "most profitable" and "most unprofitable" assets, the most profitable assets in 2024 include:

• Stocks: In 2024, global stock markets saw growth in almost every region. The S&P 500 index rose by 25%, the STOXX Europe 600 index increased by 9.6%, the Nikkei index climbed by 21.3%, and while emerging markets were relatively weak, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index still recorded an 8.0% year-to-date increase.
• Precious Metals: With central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and ongoing geopolitical tensions, precious metals performed strongly this year. Gold rose by 27.2%, marking its best performance since 2010; silver increased by 21.5%, achieving the largest year-to-date gain since 2020.
• U.S. Dollar: The U.S. dollar index rose by 7.1%, appreciating against all other G10 currencies.
• Bitcoin: Bitcoin surged by 120%, briefly breaking through the $100,000 mark.

The most unprofitable assets in 2024 mainly include:

• French Assets: Due to political turmoil, French government bonds fell by 1%, and the CAC40 index only rose by 0.9%, significantly lagging behind other European markets.
• Crude Oil: Brent crude oil prices fell by 3.1%, marking a second consecutive year of decline, while WTI prices remained relatively stable, with a cumulative increase of 0.1%.
• Japanese Yen: Despite the Bank of Japan starting to raise interest rates, the yen depreciated by 10.3% against the dollar, marking its fourth consecutive year of decline.