Jensen Huangg's speech today, the market "has high hopes"

Jensen Huang is about to take the stage at the "Spring Festival Gala of the Technology Industry," CES, with investors holding high hopes that it will bring new breakthroughs for NVIDIA's stock price.

On Monday evening local time (10:30 AM Beijing time on Tuesday), NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a speech at the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas. Analysts believe the focus of this speech will be on the Blackwell chip, which is seen as NVIDIA's next major growth driver. Additionally, Huang is expected to announce the highly anticipated GeForce RTX 50 graphics card.

Despite strong demand, the rollout of Blackwell has slowed due to manufacturing challenges that have limited supply. Matt Cioppa, a portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Equity Group, stated, "We expect demand for Blackwell to remain very strong, which could bring NVIDIA's long-term growth prospects back into the market's focus."

Over the past six months, Huang's positive comments about the Blackwell chip have repeatedly boosted NVIDIA's stock price. In October, he described the demand for the chip as "crazy," and in November, he indicated that the chip would ship in the current quarter, with demand being "very strong."

In 2024, NVIDIA's stock price has risen 171%, making it the largest single driver of the S&P 500 index's gains. So far this year, the stock has increased by 11%, with a market capitalization nearing $3.66 trillion, poised to surpass Apple as the world's most valuable company once again.

However, after NVIDIA's earnings report on November 20, the stock price briefly fell due to revenue not meeting Wall Street's higher-than-average expectations. By the end of the year, as the market's focus shifted to ASICs, companies like Broadcom and Marvell Technology saw significant gains, while NVIDIA's stock price fell for four consecutive days following Broadcom's earnings report, resulting in a market cap loss of over $200 billion.

Joseph Moore, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, led a team that compared the rise of stocks like Broadcom to a "wealth transfer" from NVIDIA. Moore stated that they remain optimistic about NVIDIA and expect Huang's speech to be a "positive event." They believe that despite current supply constraints, the market's focus will shift back to the Blackwell chip by mid-year, which will drive revenue growth in the second half.

Jordan Klein, a technology industry expert at Mizuho Securities, pointed out that this speech is a test of the market's short-term sentiment and risk appetite for tech stocks. If NVIDIA's stock price declines or stagnates in the days following the speech, it could negatively impact market sentiment in January.**

Emily Roland, Co-Chief Investment Strategist at John Hancock Investments, stated that while remaining optimistic about NVIDIA and other large tech stocks, more volatility is expected in 2025. She noted, "At some point in 2025, there will be a 'show me moment' where the story needs to be proven, and valuation is clearly an issue. It's important to pay attention to the extent of market extension, even though the tailwinds of AI still exist."