According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Xue Junsheng, head of the Economic Research Department and chief economist of HANG SENG BANK (00011), attended the 2025 Global Economic and Hong Kong Export Outlook Seminar organized by the Hong Kong Export Credit Insurance Corporation. He stated that last year, the market atmosphere was not ideal under a high-interest environment. This year, as we enter a rate-cutting cycle, major global central banks have successively cut interest rates, and U.S. inflation has eased, providing room for central banks to loosen policies.
Xue Junsheng pointed out that the Federal Reserve is acting cautiously, and the market estimates that U.S. interest rates will decline slowly, with weakened economic demand due to high-interest rates.
He believes that the Federal Reserve will not reduce interest rates only twice this year as the market expects, but there is a chance of reducing rates three to four times, with each cut being 25 basis points.
He noted that U.S. tariff measures are under scrutiny, and the export environment for Hong Kong will still be relatively difficult and challenging. However, he emphasized that mainland exports remain competitive. Based on past performance after tariff increases, the share of mainland goods exports in the global market has not decreased but rather increased, so he is not entirely pessimistic about mainland exports this year.
For Hong Kong, it is expected to benefit from U.S. rate cuts and the stabilization of the mainland economy. Interest rates are a positive factor, as Hong Kong bank interest rates will follow the U.S. rate cuts and decline, which is beneficial for businesses and citizens. The tourism industry continues to recover, with the number of visitors to Hong Kong last year exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Positive factors are yet to be reflected, and it is believed that this year will be similar to last year

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Xue Junsheng, head of the Economic Research Department and chief economist of HANG SENG BANK, attended the 2025 Global Economic and Hong Kong Export Outlook Seminar organized by the Hong Kong Export Credit Insurance Corporation. He stated that the market atmosphere was not ideal last year under a high-interest environment, but this year has entered a rate-cutting cycle, with major global central banks successively cutting rates and U.S. inflation declining, providing space for central banks to ease policies. Xue Junsheng pointed out that the Federal Reserve is acting cautiously, and the market estimates that U.S. interest rates will decline slowly, with weakened economic demand due to high-interest rates. He believes that the Federal Reserve will not reduce rates only twice this year as the market expects, but there is a chance of reducing rates 3 to 4 times, with each cut being 25 basis points. He noted that U.S. tariff measures are under scrutiny, and the export environment for Hong Kong will still be relatively difficult and challenging. However, he emphasized that mainland exports remain competitive, as evidenced by past performance after tariff increases, where mainland goods exports' share of the global market did not decline but rather increased. Therefore, he is not entirely pessimistic about mainland exports this year. For Hong Kong, it is expected to benefit from U.S. rate cuts and the stabilization of the mainland economy. Interest rates are a positive factor, as Hong Kong bank rates will decline following U.S. rate cuts, benefiting businesses and citizens. The tourism industry continues to recover, with the number of visitors to Hong Kong last year exceeding pre-pandemic levels, and positive factors are yet to be reflected. It is believed that this year will be similar to last year

- The Chief Economist of Hang Seng Bank, Xue Junsheng, noted at a seminar that the high-interest environment last year negatively impacted market sentiment, but a shift to a rate-cutting cycle is expected this year.  
- He anticipates the Federal Reserve may reduce rates 3 to 4 times, rather than the 2 times expected by the market, while highlighting challenges for Hong Kong's export environment due to U.S. tariffs.  
- However, he remains optimistic about mainland China's export competitiveness and believes Hong Kong could benefit from U.S. rate cuts and a stabilizing mainland economy.