U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Reports say Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to launch a new tariff plan

1. As of January 8th (Wednesday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are all down. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.02%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.12%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.17%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.11%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.12%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.77%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.43%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.34%, priced at $74.50 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.08%, priced at $77.11 per barrel.

Market News

Insiders say Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to launch a new tariff plan. Four insiders indicated that Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide a legal basis for imposing widespread tariffs. This declaration would allow Trump to utilize the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to formulate a new tariff plan, which unilaterally authorizes the president to manage imports during a national emergency. One of the sources noted that Trump favors this law because it grants broad jurisdiction on how to implement tariffs without strict requirements to prove that the tariffs are for national security reasons. Trump's transition team did not respond to requests for comment.

The US stock market will be closed on January 9th in honor of Jimmy Carter. To commemorate the 39th President of the United States, Jimmy Carter, the US stock market will be closed on January 9th. Carter passed away at home on December 29th at the age of 100. President Biden announced that January 9th would be a national day of mourning. A state funeral for President Carter will also be held on that day at the Washington National Cathedral in Washington, D.C. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will be closed that day to pay tribute to President Carter.

"Little Non-Farm" and Fed minutes are coming tonight. At 21:15 Beijing time on Wednesday, the US ADP employment change data for December will be released. This data is known as "Little Non-Farm" and is expected to trigger significant market movements. Surveys indicate that the US ADP employment number for December is expected to increase by 140,000. Previously, the US ADP employment number for November increased by 146,000. Additionally, at 03:00 Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes from the December monetary policy meeting. These minutes may reveal more clues about the future policy path, especially regarding whether the Fed is truly turning hawkish At the December meeting, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with officials predicting only two rate cuts in 2025. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that further adjustments would depend on the trajectory of inflation.

Trump's shocking remarks provoke backlash! Trudeau: Canada will never merge with the U.S., Panama and Denmark pledge sovereignty. President-elect Trump has already begun to wield a big stick towards several countries before taking office. On January 7th local time, Trump stated at a press conference held at Mar-a-Lago that he would use "economic power" to merge the U.S. with Canada, viewing the boundary between the two countries as not defined by "artificially drawn borders." Previously, Trump had referred to Canada as the 51st state of the U.S. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, who has announced his resignation, stated on social media: "Canada will never become part of the United States." Trudeau also mentioned, "As our largest trading and security partners, the workers and people of both our countries benefit from this."

Federal Reserve's Bostic: Inflation will gradually decline, policymakers should remain cautious in decision-making. Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, stated that given the uneven progress in reducing inflation, officials should be cautious in their decision-making and tend to maintain high interest rates to achieve price stability. Bostic also indicated that he expects inflation to gradually decline to the Federal Reserve's 2% target this year. He added that price pressures are expected to ease, although there may be times when progress seems to stagnate or inflation intensifies. He stated, "Given the uncertainty of these measures, I believe this will require our policy tools to be more cautious."

10-year U.S. Treasury yield surge causes "pain" in the market, U.S. stocks face further downside risks. As the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaches levels that have caused significant pain in the stock market in recent years, there is still room for further declines in U.S. stocks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to just below 4.7%, having increased by more than a percentage point almost uninterrupted since mid-September, marking the highest level since April. This trend is similar to the situation in 2022 and 2023, when global stock markets fell sharply. However, this time, the stock market's gains have only paused slightly, and if yields continue to surge, there is still room for declines. Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Greiffmann wrote in a report: "The correlation between stocks and bond yields has turned negative again." He emphasized that if yields continue to rise without good economic data, it will hit the stock market.

Individual Stock News

Nvidia (NVDA.US) flash crash! No short-term benefits in "Tech Spring Festival," traders massively sell call options. Investors sold a large number of call options for Nvidia (NVDA.US) on Tuesday, as the stock fell after reaching its first record high since November last year. Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group, stated that during the trading session, approximately 200,000 call options expiring on January 17 with a strike price of $140, as well as 600,000 to 700,000 call options expiring on February 21 with strike prices between $159 and $165, were essentially sold The company previously released a comprehensive introduction of new products but failed to elevate the artificial intelligence chip manufacturer to new heights. Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, will deliver a speech at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas on Monday evening, where a series of new products will be launched.

Apple (AAPL.US) $1 billion investment unresolved by Indonesia ban, iPhone 16 series sales hindered. Indonesia has banned the sale of Apple's iPhone 16 series, stating that Apple's $1 billion AirTag factory plan in the region failed to meet investment requirements. At a briefing on Wednesday, Indonesian Minister Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita stated that according to domestic content rules, Apple needs to produce some smartphones or components domestically in Indonesia, while AirTag is only considered an accessory and does not meet the standards.

Honda (HMC.US) releases first "American-made" electric vehicle equipped with AI autonomous driving software. Honda Motor Co. announced two prototypes of electric vehicles produced in the United States, signaling the company's plan to launch a wave of new electric vehicle models in the coming years. However, if demand continues to lose momentum, the automaker may slow down its electric vehicle investments. Honda stated on Tuesday that these two models—a sedan and an SUV—will be produced at its Ohio plant and will start selling in the U.S. early next year. This is the first batch of the 30 new electric vehicles the company plans to launch globally by 2030. The company's goal is to achieve 100% zero-emission vehicle sales in North America by 2040, but it also stated that it is willing to change its strategy if electric vehicle demand continues to weaken. This situation could be exacerbated if President Trump, if elected, follows through on his threat to eliminate electric vehicle tax credits.

Shell (SHEL.US) lowers Q4 LNG production expectations, warns of weak oil and gas trading. Shell released a trading update on Wednesday, lowering its fourth-quarter liquefied natural gas production expectations and forecasting that its oil and gas trading results will be significantly lower than the previous quarter, while also planning to write down non-cash after-tax impairment provisions of $1.5 billion to $3 billion. Specifically, Shell has revised its fourth-quarter LNG production forecast from the previous 6.9 million to 7.5 million tons down to 6.8 million to 7.2 million tons, attributing this to a decrease in feed gas delivered to liquefaction facilities and a reduction in cargo transportation. Financially, Shell will write down impairment provisions of up to $1.2 billion related to renewable energy sectors associated with its European and North American assets before the annual performance announcement, with total non-cash after-tax impairment provisions between $1.5 billion and $3 billion.

Opening new markets! Merck (MRK.US) Gardasil® becomes the first male HPV vaccine approved in China. Merck announced that multiple new indications for Gardasil® [Quadrivalent Human Papillomavirus Vaccine (Yeast)] have been approved for marketing by the National Medical Products Administration of China, applicable for males aged 9 to 26. The approval of the new indications marks Gardasil® as the first and currently only HPV vaccine approved for males in China. This opens up an undeveloped new market for the American pharmaceutical giant as the vaccination craze among females gradually fades The newly approved indication for Gardasil® is applicable for males aged 9-26 to prevent anal cancer caused by HPV types 16 and 18, genital warts (condyloma acuminata) caused by HPV types 6 and 11, as well as the following precancerous lesions or atypical lesions caused by HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18: grade 1, 2, and 3 anal intraepithelial neoplasia (AIN).

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 21:15: U.S. December ADP employment change (10,000).

Beijing time 21:30: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 4 (10,000).

Beijing time 23:00: U.S. November wholesale inventory month-on-month final value (%).

Beijing time 23:30: U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending January 3 (10,000 barrels).

Next day Beijing time 1:00: U.S. EIA natural gas inventory change for the week ending January 3 (billion cubic feet).

Next day Beijing time 2:00: U.S. January 8 10-year Treasury auction - total amount (billion USD), U.S. January 8 10-year Treasury auction - high yield (%) .

Beijing time 21:00: Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks on economic outlook at the OECD meeting.

Next day Beijing time 3:00: Federal Reserve releases minutes of the December monetary policy meeting