The last time U.S. Treasury bonds fell like this, the U.S. stock market also crashed

The bond market is "falling endlessly," Wall Street: the stock market still has room to decline.

Recently, there has been a large-scale sell-off in the global bond market, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rising to around 4.7%, reaching a new high since April 2023. Since mid-September, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has increased by more than 100 basis points, showing an almost uninterrupted upward trend.

This trend is similar to the situation in 2022 and 2023, when global stock markets fell sharply. However, during this round of rising bond yields, the stock market has only seen slight adjustments, which may indicate that if yields continue to rise, the stock market has further room to decline.

Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann and others stated in a recent report that the correlation between stock and bond yields has turned negative again. If bond yields continue to rise in the face of poor economic data, it will impact the stock market.

The report stated:

"Considering the relative stability of the stock market during the bond sell-off, we believe that if negative economic news emerges, the short-term risk of a market correction may increase."

Just yesterday, Morgan Stanley Chief Strategist Michael Wilson also warned that as the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rises above 4.5%, it has put pressure on U.S. stock valuations, with the correlation between the S&P 500 index and bond yields turning "significantly negative," suggesting that U.S. stocks may face severe challenges in the next six months.

Goldman Sachs also added that the current rise in U.S. long-term bond yields is the largest, with the yield curve steepening, reflecting market concerns about U.S. fiscal and inflation risks, and the main changes are occurring in real yields, which exclude inflation factors.

Currently, the market has repriced interest rate cut expectations, anticipating only one 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve by July, and seems to still believe that the U.S. economy can achieve a "Goldilocks" style "soft landing," where the economy maintains growth, unemployment is low, and inflation threats are minimal.

UBS Group strategist Gerry Fowler stated:

"All of this is reflected in real yields rather than inflation, and mainly occurs at the long end rather than the short end, indicating that the market is very optimistic about U.S. productivity improvements and is almost unconcerned about tariff escalations."

According to a previous report by Reuters, most investors on Wall Street are very optimistic about the stock market in 2025, especially U.S. stocks, while overlooking the potential inflation pressures that may arise from tariffs and new government policies