Tianfeng Securities Guo Mingqi: GB200 NVL72 mass production visibility is low, beware of NVIDIA short-term risks

NVIDIA's GB200 NVL72 has been delayed multiple times, and Ming-Chi Kuo believes that mass shipments may not occur until 1H26, later than the market's general expectation of 2Q25.

On Monday local time, Tianfeng Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released an analysis report stating that the shipment volume of the GB200 NVL72 is likely to be significantly lower than expected.

GB200 NVL72 assembly mass production schedule delays record: September 2024 → December 2024 → 1Q25 → 2Q25 (latest). The repeated delays in mass shipments have resulted in a shipment volume that will be below expectations. Currently, it is expected that the GB200 NVL72 shipments in 2025 may be around 25,000–35,000 units, significantly lower than the 50,000–80,000 units expected during the most optimistic market sentiment last year.

Ming-Chi Kuo believes that the biggest impact on market sentiment currently may not be the change in shipment volume, but rather the negative impact on market confidence caused by the multiple delays of the GB200 NVL72.

Specifically, Ming-Chi Kuo stated:

Generally, the development time from project initiation to mass shipment for servers (x86) typically requires 1–1.5 years for standard specification upgrades, and 1.5–2 years if it involves platform upgrades or key technology upgrades.

The GB200 NVL72 significantly enhances computing power and employs various high-spec technologies that are lacking or have little mass production experience, making the development difficulty far higher than that of general servers. Even if NVIDIA integrates top development resources from the global server supply chain, a reasonable estimate for the development time still requires 1.5–2 years. In light of the multiple delays of the GB200 NVL72, the obvious reason for the delays is insufficient development time.

The project initiation time for the GB200 NVL72 is 4Q23, and if a reasonable development time starts at 1.5–2 years, 2Q25 is a reasonable and optimistic expectation. If it is delayed again to 2H25, it would not be surprising (if this happens, it will again undermine market confidence).

Currently, the lower-spec models of the GB200 and the GPUs consumed by several orders of HGX are only equivalent to about 2,000–4,000 units of the GB200 NVL72, which has limited help in boosting market confidence.

Insufficient market confidence may lead to the following negative impacts:

Currently, the most unfavorable factor for market sentiment is that although the supply chain expects the GB200 NVL72 to have mass shipments in 2Q25, investors lack confidence in this commitment until they see evidence of mass shipments.

Even though some suppliers or customers previously posted photos of the finished GB200 NVL72 products with small/sample shipments, it has limited help for NVIDIA or the supply chain's stock prices, as investors care about clear evidence of mass shipments (such as supply chain surveys, revenue, etc.).

Stock prices may react positively in advance, but with insufficient market confidence, related market rumors (which may not all be true) can easily be amplified or over-interpreted, such as the previous ASIC replacing NVIDIA AI chips and the recent expansion related to CoWoS.

The GB300 NVL72 also has several key specification upgrades and requires development time, so it is more likely that mass shipments will not occur until 1H26. Due to low visibility in mass production, related positive factors have limited help in boosting market confidence in the short term. **

Due to shipment issues being on the supply side rather than the demand side, and with TSMC cautiously expanding production while advanced processes are a scarce resource, Nvidia is unlikely to cut orders in the short term unless GB200 NVL72 experiences several more delays