Goldman Sachs: Although the California wildfires are severe, they only have a "slight drag" on U.S. employment
Goldman Sachs pointed out in a research report that despite the severe damage caused by wildfires in Los Angeles County, the impact on U.S. job growth is only a "slight drag." It is expected that non-farm payrolls will decrease by 15,000 to 25,000 in January, and the online search volume for unemployment benefits has not significantly increased. The fires are expected to lead to a decline in GDP growth of about 0.2 percentage points in the first quarter, and the impact of insurance costs on inflation is minimal. The fires have burned over 29,000 acres of land, resulting in at least 5 deaths, with losses estimated at $20 billion
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Goldman Sachs Group pointed out in a research report that although the deadly wildfires in Los Angeles County are one of the most devastating natural disasters in U.S. history, their impact on U.S. job growth may be only a "slight drag."
Led by Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs economists expect that the non-farm payroll growth in the January employment report will decrease by about 15,000 to 25,000 jobs. This forecast is partly based on the fact that currently only about 0.5% of California's population is under evacuation orders or warnings.
The economists further analyzed the situation regarding unemployment insurance claims. They noted that timely alternative data shows that the online search volume for unemployment benefits has not significantly increased since the fires began. Based on this, they expect that initial jobless claims on Thursday will decline again.
In addition, Goldman Sachs estimates that the fires will lead to a decrease of about 0.2 percentage points in GDP growth for the first quarter. This estimate does not yet include the offsetting effects that typically arise from rapid reconstruction after past wildfires.
Regarding inflation, economists expect that insurance costs will not have "a significant impact" on inflation.
It is reported that the fire has burned over 29,000 acres (11,736 hectares) of land, resulting in at least 5 deaths. Nearly 180,000 people have been forced to evacuate their homes, and at least 10,000 buildings have been destroyed or damaged.
JP Morgan analysts stated that the fires are expected to cause $20 billion in insurance losses, highlighting the severity of this disaster