Earnings Preview | JPMorgan Chase Q4 performance may exceed expectations, leading the U.S. stock earnings season!

According to Zhitong Finance APP, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) is expected to announce its fourth-quarter earnings before the market opens on Wednesday. Wall Street is closely monitoring its performance for strong signs that could confirm industry optimism. Currently, the market expects JPMorgan Chase's earnings per share to be $4.11, with revenue projected to reach $41.7 billion; net interest income is estimated to be around $23.1 billion. In terms of trading revenue, fixed income is expected to be $4.42 billion, while equity income is projected to be $2.37 billion. As the largest bank by asset size in the United States, JPMorgan Chase has demonstrated strong growth potential across multiple business areas.

It is understood that the banking industry has many bullish reasons as the year comes to a close. On one hand, Wall Street's activities have significantly rebounded, with increased market trading activity providing favorable opportunities for banks to expand their business. On the other hand, the consumer spending situation remains robust, providing stable support for the bank's retail business and others.

At the same time, Donald Trump's election victory has raised hopes for regulatory easing, which is undoubtedly a potential positive factor for large financial institutions like JPMorgan Chase, likely to further unleash the vitality of its business development.

Last month, JPMorgan Chase executives indicated that investment banking revenue in the fourth quarter would achieve a 45% increase, while trading revenue would see an approximate 15% rise.

Additionally, the bank revealed that its latest forecast for net interest income in 2025 is $2 billion higher than previous guidance, leading analysts to speculate that fourth-quarter net interest income is also likely to exceed market expectations, adding more highlights to the bank's annual performance.

Despite the favorable business development trend, analysts may pose some key questions to CEO Jamie Dimon following the earnings announcement. Among them, Dimon's succession plan is undoubtedly a focal topic.

Previously, the number two executive, Daniel Pinto, announced in June that he would step down as Chief Operating Officer, and Dimon hinted last year that he might resign as CEO within five years. Therefore, the market is highly attentive to potential leadership changes and strategic direction adjustments at JPMorgan Chase.

Another highly watched issue is how changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut outlook will affect JPMorgan Chase's overall interest rate cut actions. Although Federal Reserve officials expect two more rate cuts this year, fluctuations in economic indicators may lead them to pause the rate-cutting pace. This will have significant implications for JPMorgan Chase's asset-liability management and interest income, so analysts hope to gain more information from management regarding coping strategies.

Finally, if Trump's regulatory agency proposes a more moderate final version of Basel III as supported by potential nominees, analysts may pressure JPMorgan Chase to explain how it will handle any unexpected windfalls.

Dimon stated last May that stock buybacks would decrease due to high stock prices, but since then, the volume of stock buybacks has been on the rise. The strategic considerations behind this change and adjustments to future buyback plans will become focal points of market attention In addition to JPMorgan Chase, this week will also see the quarterly and annual performance announcements from Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, while Bank of America and Morgan Stanley plan to release their financial reports on Thursday.

It is worth mentioning that the new round of U.S. stock earnings season officially kicks off this week, with Wall Street financial giants such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase leading the way. The performance of these financial giants and their management's outlook for future performance will have a significant and far-reaching impact on the U.S. stock market and even global stock markets.

Especially against the backdrop of the current "anchor of global asset pricing" — the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exerting pressure on stocks and other risk assets, the market is eagerly anticipating that Wall Street giants can set a good tone for the new round of U.S. stock earnings season with better-than-expected growth, thereby bringing more confidence and hope to global investors