Understanding the Market | Gold stocks rise again as US CPI data rekindles expectations for interest rate cuts this year; China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests gold prices may break through USD 3,000 per ounce this year
Gold stocks rose again. As of the time of publication, CHINAGOLDINTL was up 3.1%, trading at HKD 44.9; ZHAOJIN MINING was up 2.64%, trading at HKD 12.44; ZIJIN MINING was up 1.75%, trading at HKD 15.1; and SD GOLD was up 0.99%, trading at HKD 14.26. On the news front, the U.S. core CPI for December fell short of expectations, leading to increased market expectations for interest rate cuts. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated in a media interview on Thursday that if future inflation data aligns with last December's positive report, the Fed may cut rates further this year, potentially earlier than investors currently expect, and does not completely rule out the possibility of a rate cut in March. CICC's research report pointed out that looking ahead to 2025, gold prices may still be in a bull market channel, with the potential to break through USD 3,000 per ounce in 2025, and the RMB gold price may achieve a greater increase compared to the USD gold price. From Q1 2024 to Q3 2024, as cost increases slow and gold prices rise further, pre-tax profit per ounce began to stabilize and rebound, rising from USD 692 to USD 1,019. Looking ahead to Q4 2024 and 2025, CICC expects the pre-tax profit per ounce for global gold companies to widen further
According to Zhitong Finance APP, gold stocks have risen again. As of the time of publication, China Gold International (02099) is up 3.1%, trading at HKD 44.9; ZHAOJIN MINING (01818) is up 2.64%, trading at HKD 12.44; Zijin Mining (02899) is up 1.75%, trading at HKD 15.1; SD GOLD (01787) is up 0.99%, trading at HKD 14.26.
On the news front, the U.S. core CPI for December fell short of expectations, raising market expectations for interest rate cuts. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated in a media interview on Thursday that if future inflation data aligns with the positive report from December last year, the Federal Reserve may cut rates further this year, potentially earlier than investors currently expect, and does not completely rule out the possibility of a rate cut in March.
CICC's research report points out that looking ahead to 2025, gold prices may still be in a bull market channel, with the potential to break through USD 3,000 per ounce in 2025, and the RMB gold price may achieve a greater increase compared to the USD gold price. From Q1 2024 to Q3 2024, as cost increases slow and gold prices rise further, pre-tax profit per ounce is expected to stabilize and rebound, increasing from USD 692 to USD 1,019. Looking ahead to Q4 2024 and 2025, CICC expects that the pre-tax profit per ounce for global gold companies may further widen