Guggenheim: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates about once per quarter this year, totaling up to 100 basis points
Anna Walsh, Chief Investment Officer of Guggenheim Partners, stated that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates once a quarter in 2025, with an overall expected reduction of 75 basis points this year, potentially reaching 100 basis points. She noted that although the pace of rate cuts may be slower than expected, the strength of the dollar will continue to attract capital. Walsh also mentioned that the bond market is in a range trading state and expects U.S. stocks to rise driven by themes such as artificial intelligence, energy, and the return of manufacturing, with the S&P 500 index's return rate reaching 8%-10% by the end of 2025
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer of Guggenheim Partners, stated to foreign media on Monday at the start of the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates about once per quarter in 2025, with an overall reduction of around 75 basis points this year, and possibly even a full percentage point. She also mentioned that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower rates, although the pace may be slower than expected.
In recent days, traders' bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates this year have decreased from at least three times a month ago to just one cut, with the possibility of a second cut remaining uncertain.
Walsh stated that as long as the dollar remains strong as a reserve currency, the U.S. will continue to attract capital, and the tariffs imposed by incoming President Donald Trump may not be as severe as most expect. She anticipates that the average increase in tariffs will not exceed 10% and will be set for different countries.
Walsh noted that after the bull market before 2022, the bond market has now been in a range-trading state for the third consecutive year, and the volatility within the range makes it interesting. She said, "If the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury reaches 5%, that would be too extreme, representing an oversold position and a complete buying opportunity." She added that the yield spread on bonds may continue to remain low, which is also beneficial for U.S. stocks.
She expects that positive global themes such as artificial intelligence (AI), energy, and the return of manufacturing to the U.S. will further drive U.S. stock prices up this year, with the S&P 500 index's return expected to reach 8%-10% by the end of 2025.
Walsh mentioned that there is some uncertainty regarding Trump's policies and the actual policies to be implemented by the incoming government, and the extent of the U.S. economic slowdown may exceed current expectations.
She stated, "The contradictions between politics and policy are like playing ping pong... This will bring significant volatility to our (investment) themes this year."