The yen strengthens against the trend as traders bet that Trump's first wave of tariff attacks will "not stir up much of a storm."
The yen is the only currency among the G10 that has appreciated against the dollar, as traders bet that Trump's tariff offensive will not prevent the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates. Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico starting February 1, leading to a general rise in the dollar, but the yen still rose 0.5% against the dollar. Market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan have reached 92%, with most economists predicting that the hike will be implemented at the end of this week's meeting
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, on Tuesday, the Japanese yen was the only currency among the Group of Ten (G10) to appreciate against the US dollar, as traders bet that the first wave of tariffs from newly elected President Trump would not prevent the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates this Friday.
On January 20 local time, Trump announced that starting February 1, a 25% tariff would be imposed on goods imported from Canada and Mexico. Following this news, the US dollar generally rose against other currencies, but the yen still appreciated 0.5% against the dollar, reaching 154.78 yen per dollar, the highest level since December 19 of last year. As of the time of writing, the exchange rate was 155.35 yen per dollar.
The strengthening of the yen reflects market expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at this week's policy meeting. Overnight index swaps indicate a 92% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this week. Sources earlier this month revealed that Bank of Japan officials believe that unless Trump's presidency brings too many surprises, a rate hike is very likely.
Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Bank Singapore, stated, "The volatility triggered by Trump's speech is not concerning, allowing the yen to digest the increased bets on a Bank of Japan rate hike."
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya clearly stated in a speech to Yokohama business leaders last Tuesday that the central bank's policy committee would discuss the possibility of a rate hike this week. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated last Wednesday that he would consider a rate hike at this week's meeting and hinted at increased confidence in wage growth, reinforcing market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, a survey released last week showed that among 53 economists surveyed, about 74% predicted that the Bank of Japan would raise rates by the end of this week's meeting, up from 52% in the last survey